View from London: As USD Searches for Bottom, Pound Is the Mover

Focus: CURRENCIES

Robert Savage Image Robert Savage Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

The GBP has been the mover to watch and its pain revolves around many factors from UK PM May’s political stability to Brexit uncertainty. For today, the numbers suggest GBP 1.3025 more than 1.3355 again, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research in his Thursday commentary.


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The focus is on the FOMC minutes from yesterday and just how dovish they are compared to other speeches from the Fed with the “mystery” of below 2% inflation the key to watching data for the real odds of a December rate hike.

Until that gets sorted, expect the U.S. dollar (USD/EUR) to languish and that is precisely what happened overnight with Japan getting its PPI higher thanks to oil and metals, Australia continuing to see a housing bubble in the making, Europe continues to grow better than expected.

The numbers game of lower than hoped inflation just about everywhere matters but also propels the rally up in equities with Japan watching Nikkei 21K. That number also seems to be helping Abe as polls predict a 300 seat win for the LDP snap election.


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Lower than hoped CPI in Sweden at 2.3% y/y drives the euro/Swedish krona (EUR/SEK) up 0.5% to 9.59 this morning.

The other game for markets isn’t a number but a set of fears from U.S. dropping out of NAFTA;

--to war with North Korea;
--to Iran retaliation on its nuclear deal with the US being decertified;
--to Brexit talks being stalled;
--to PM Rajoy giving Catalan 8 days to end its independence push – and that all has just not mattered much to price but leaves the fog of uncertainty thicker.

The numbers game today is about USD finding a bottom – that started with the EUR failing at 1.1880 and continues with the British pound (GBP/EUR) at 1.3250 reversing sharply this morning. The GBP has been the mover to watch and its pain revolves around many factors from UK PM May’s political stability to Brexit uncertainty to the BOE reliability in hiking in November.

For today, the numbers suggest GBP 1.3025 more than 1.3355 again.

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