Year-End Risk Trading and Focused on Euro/Japanese Yen

12/22/2017 9:44 am EST

Focus: CURRENCIES

Robert Savage

Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

The euro is trying 1.19 again but hasn’t been back to 1.20 yet – perhaps next year. We are waiting for the cover of snow to get such volatility. Until then we are all risk trading and it’s the euro/Japanese yen that matters, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research.

Thursday was the last full day of trading and of the Track Morning report for 2017. For all those who read it, thank you, may your 2018 be happy, healthy and prosperous with the last days of 2017 both festive and restful.

The last 24 hours didn’t change much in the macro world – even as Melbourne suffers a terror car attack bringing home the sad reality of our times, or that Poland continues to battle with the EU over its legal system, and the UK sees another cabinet sacking.

But that as has all been pushed aside like all other geopolitical tragedies, perhaps heeding the call from central bankers everywhere to hold risk and rest easy.

There is no better indicator of such than the euro/Japanese yen (EUR/JPY) today, which breaks out and dances near 135. The BOJ stayed on hold, Kuroda sounded dovish enough and the little data just didn’t shift any thinking whether it was NZ GDP revisions or the UK public sector borrowing.


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The BOJ Kuroda news conference did spend a fair amount of time on financial bubbles and he noted that the bitcoin (BTC) mania was just that, speculative and overdone, but not an issue for the economy.

The last hurdle for risk into the Christmas holiday is the U.S. and Canadian data along with the results of the Catalan election expected near the U.S. futures close.

We are all waiting for the cover of snow to have an excuse to break from investing and trading and rethink what 2018 can do to the tape.

Markets in U.S. bonds have broken out of resistance in 10Y and target 2.60% again but perhaps not until the new year.

Oil is holding well over its 55-day average but hasn’t been over $59 yet – perhaps next year.

The EUR is trying 1.19 again but hasn’t been back to 1.20 yet – perhaps next year. We are waiting for the cover of snow to get such volatility. Until then we are all risk trading and it’s the EUR/JPY that matters.

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