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Guide for Traders in Week Packed with Data, Earnings, Policy Reports

01/29/2018 3:43 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Ziad Jasani

Managing Director and Partner, Independent Investor Institute

This week is overflowing with economic data, earnings and monetary policy events against the backdrop of an extremely bullish, and equally over-bought, global equity market. More from Ziad Jasani of the Independent Investor Institute, writing and videocasting on Monday.

View this week’s video commentary here, recorded Jan. 29:

video

Under the hood of this market remain polarizing conditions in currency, bond and commodity markets, making their influence greater on the shape and flow of equities.

The following bullets lay out the key events and expected influences on macro-variables and equity markets this week:

• Jan. 29: US Core PCE Price Index “Likely Beats” = USD →, US Treasury Yields ↔→, US Bonds ↔↓, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓

• Jan. 30: Eurozone GDP “Likely Beats” = EUR/USD ↓, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔→ • Jan 30th: BOE Carney “Dovish-Hawk” = GBP/USD ↓, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔→

• Jan. 30: API Oil Inventories “Builds” = USD →, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Oil ↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓ • Jan 30th: Chinese Manufacturing Data “Misses” = USD/CNY→, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓

• Jan. 30: Trump State of the Union “Protectionistic” = USD →, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓

• Jan. 31: US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls “Meets Target” = USD →, US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔→

• Jan 31: Canadian GDP m/m “Misses Target” = USD/CAD →, Canadian Bond Yields ↔↓, Canadian Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔

• Jan. 31: FOMC Policy Statement “Valuation Concerns, Hints of Inflation, Hawkish” = USD →, Short-Term US Treasury Yields →, Long-Term US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓

• Feb. 1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI “Meets to Misses” = USD ↓, US Treasury Yields ↔, US Bonds ↔, Precious Metals ↔, Oil ↓, Equity Pressure ↔

• Feb 2: US Non-Farm Payrolls & Avg Hourly Wages “Meet to Beat” = USD →, Short-Term US Treasury Yields →, Long-Term US Treasury Yields ↔↓, US Bonds ↔→, Precious Metals ↓, Equity Pressure ↔→ The Net/Net impact expected this week is: USD →, CAD ↓, Long-Term US Treasury Yields ↓,  US Bonds ↔→, Canadian Bonds →, Precious Metals ↓, Oil ↔↓, Equity Pressure ↔↓.

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