The U.S. bond market is getting close to that stairwell top with the break overnight of 2.815% resistance looking important with 2.86% and 2.89% next significant resistance – just when the USD follows it, look out, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research Thursday.

Today is a holiday in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong – Qingming or tomb-sweeping day. This may be a good time to reflect on the dead fears that have been haunting markets in 2018.

Tariffs, technology and tightening are all blamed for the present volatility but have all receded in the last 24 hours. The Chinese push to resolve trade issues in negotiations while U.S. NEC Kudlow suggests the U.S. tariffs on China may not go into play.

NAFTA talks are warming up with a Washington meeting planned. Talk replaces trade war fears.

More talk replaces Apple (AAPL) woes over private data use ahead of Zuckerberg's testimony to Congress on mistakes next week by Facebook (FB).


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That leaves rates as the last potential ghost to move markets with U.S. jobs and FOMC Powell Friday as potential issues in the short term.

But it’s not just about the U.S. The UK has its own debate with sharply weaker Services PMI today again blamed on weather but clearly hurting 1Q GDP – the BOE path needs clarity and the debate there over forward guidance rages. But a BOE dot plot won’t be sufficient to spur growth in the UK or political stability.

The European Service PMI are weak as well and cast some doubt on the need for ECB tapering. All this sets the tone for today’s US data, with the weekly tally upbeat so far, trade and jobless claims may distract. The real story for tomb sweeping day is the need for progress, for providing the material needs in the afterlife. Markets call this climbing the wall of worry.

Sticking to Wednesday's movie theme, today may be about The Music Box – another Laurel and Hardy film from 1932, where after much struggle they lift a piano up a large set of stairs. Problems for them were the piano was wreck after their success. Perhaps the comedy of climbing this wall of worry in markets is the same – the reward doesn’t match the risk taken – as volatility makes any signal of success just noise.

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