You might get a relief rally from the Trump announcement, but not expect it to extend very far. Beware raw deals whether the market S&P 500 (SPX) seems relieved or not, and if it drops initially and rebounds, don’t be surprised if it falters later, writes Gene Inger.

Overall concerns for the weeks ahead remain. 

Strategies in flux leave market money managers and traders in limbo for the very short-term. Many argue optimistically, but it's not so simple as relates to the technical, fundamental or even geopolitical status. Or more importantly, how developments can disrupt the best assessment, at least temporarily, but in some cases may impact even global concerns.

Global leaders, markets ponder what's next after Trump withdraws from Iran deal.

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Literally the market tried to recover from the expected faltering follow-through upside action. (Never chase out-of-the-box Monday opening rallies for the most part.) Then it took a nosedive when the White House announced the president will announce his Iran decision Tuesday. 

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Oil pushed over $70 Monday and slipped 2.7% Tuesday morning ahead of the Iran announcement.

(No cap as expected it along with advising not chasing since we’ve been bullish since the $40s/ bbl.)

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Generally expecting Trump to tear it up, that idea is reinforced by Monday’s comment from Guliani, suggesting what's needed is regime change over in Iran. That won’t go over well with the strict mullahs in Iran, or even tell them they need nuclear weapons. The reality is Iranians are intruding on their neighbors; funneling illicit weaponry to Yemen’s rebels, as well as pushing into Western Syria which Israel has said is a no go. That is where the Russians have been reneging on their buffer zone pledge to keep Iranian forces from establishing bases or outposts near Israel. Of course their support for Hezbollah has been legend as the Elections give the terrorists more influence in their effort to use democracy to destabilize Lebanon (to wit yesterday's elections). It really remains a powder-keg.

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Meanwhile the technical pattern continues attempts to breakout from the ongoing descending triangle, which I’m skeptical about even if the news backdrop manages not to suppress it.

Also forward earnings optimism we all hear should be a bit more in doubt given the export contraction heard from South Korea.

In-sum: Tuesday hinges on Iran with kneejerk responses possible.

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