Extended markets ran into resistance where expected this week, within the Sept. S&P 2810-2820 (SPX) range. The backdrop in politics was dramatic at times, writes Gene Inger Thursday night.

Perhaps more so in efforts to undermine progress than contribute to harmony among citizens or markets, while the market’s beat persisted at its own pace, and eased accordingly based on technicals not testiness.

Business in the U.S. is good, not necessarily great.

Corporate guidance in a few earnings reports like IBM (IBM) was solid, but not phenomenal.

Reuters: US stocks largely flat Friday as trade fears offset strong Microsoft earnings.

Microsoft (MSFT). S&P 500 (SPX).

Whether it’s real estate or financials or insurance, there have been excuses for the modest guidance. Few mention the upside exhaustion; games played with buybacks being mostly behind.

And the impact a concern about continued progress with reforms (at the moment focused on trade and tariffs) as key to what’s going on. It matters as it directly ties into business confidence.

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What is significant is not the Fed pushing-against Trump’s implicit remarks, nor will the markets care.

The market will care if the AG’s public indictment of Russians via a news conference, at the same exact moment Trump was meeting with Queen Elizabeth (the monarch not cruise ship) reinforces a suspicion that’s the way the Dept. of Justice is conveying something more than meets the eye.

So, while the markets have ignored the political circus, for the most part, the markets would not ignore an actual move to unseat a controversial president.  

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The market is priced extraordinarily pricey; the protests about Trump very clearly unhappy to see a hawkish Fed is not unusual.

During the Vietnam War there was the classic moment when President Johnson summoned a nervous Fed Chairman Martin to his Texas ranch. While arguing, Johnson reportedly slammed the Fed chairman against the wall. While he pointed out the Fed’s independence, he eventually relented. Johnson could have his low-interest continued funding of the war.

I doubt media will notice this sentiment when reflecting on the president today, as not unprecedented. 

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