Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex and Treasury markets and today’s economic report calendar. Follow his reports Monday-Friday on MoneyShow.com and short Midday Markets video.

Bill Baruch's FX Rundown for Nov. 19-20 here.

 

E-mini S&P (December)

Monday’s close: Settled at 2696.25, down 46.75.

Fundamentals: Tech is under pressure again today and after the NQ lost 3.2% Monday, it is down 1.5% overnight. Traders must keep a pulse on the big names; Apple (AAPL) lost 3.96% Monday and is down 2% premarket and Microsoft (MSFT) lost 3.39% Monday and is down more than 1% premarket. Since before its earnings in October we’ve called for Microsoft to be a leader, it now must show up. Amazon (AMZN) lost 5.09% Monday and Facebook (FB) 5.72%; it will be crucial for each to stop the bleeding at a minimum. Amazon purely for its size and gravitational pull but Facebook because it has exacerbated sentiment with troubles on all fronts. Although we don’t find Facebook a true leader right here, right now, it must stop going lower.

The global picture is a sea of red with Hong Kong and China getting hit the hardest. Overall, the market wanted to believe positive news on the U.S. and China trade front last week, it was obvious in its rips higher following upbeat comments and the refusal to pare those gains as the story developed or deteriorated.

Sentiment has shifted this week after U.S. and China relations took a turn for the worse at the APEC conference over the weekend; last week investors wanted to believe in a positive outcome at next week’s Summit at the Summit but this week investors look to sell first and ask questions later.

Adding to the mounting wall of worries has been the Federal Reserve. Yes, a less hawkish tone should certainly be supportive but now the market is questioning the budding 180 and focused on their calls for slower growth upon weaker outlooks from Apple and NVIDIA (NVDA).

On the earnings front, Target (TGT) is down nearly 10% after a miss this morning. On the economic calendar we look to Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 am EDT. We will also keep an eye on German Bundesbank President Weidmann who speaks at 10:00 am EDT.

Technicals: The tape is undoubtedly weak this morning after miraculously pulling off a settlement right at our 2696.25 level and barely trading higher than such after the reopen. This immediately brings our rare major four-star support in the mix at ...

 

Crude Oil (January)

Monday’s close: Settled at 57.20, up 0.52.

Fundamentals: Crude Oil recovered firmly Monday from a higher low of 55.28 versus 54.90 on November 13. On the expiration of the December contract, this reversal brought Crude back from the depths of another technical rollover. Still, strong technical headwind that we will discuss in the Technical section below has kept a lid on prices.

However, weak global fundamentals have also taken the wind out of Crude’s recovery sails with equity markets around the world taking a beating and encouraging a risk-off sentiment. Furthermore, expectations have trickled in for tomorrow’s EIA inventory reports and unfortunately, they point to another build and this has also weighed on Crude Oil. With global sentiment leading the way, traders must keep a pulse on things broadly, however, with a glass half-full perspective, at least expectations for another build tomorrow do not set a high bar. API data is due at 4:30 pm EDT today.

Technicals: Crude failed for what could be considered as the fifth time to get above first key resistance. While our level aligns multiple technical indicators, the true significance of ...  +

 

Gold (December)

Monday’s close: Settled at 1225.3, up 2.3.

Fundamentals: Gold is trading strongly this morning and following Treasury prices higher as risk-off sentiment flourishes in the face of the tech bloodbath. Though the Dollar Index (DXY) is nudging green, it is still about 1.25% from its failed high last week and we have begun to see a crack in the Fed’s hawkish armor. The Chinese yuan (CNY) is also holding onto last week’s paring of losses against the U.S. dollar (USD). Still, there is strong technical resistance overhead that we will discuss in the Technical section below. Building Permits and Housing Starts were overall better than expected on the heels of what has been poor housing data. Traders should be vigilant to currency volatility tied to Brexit and Italy as the day develops.

Technicals: We remain Bullish Gold now and in the long-term, however, traders must understand that major three-star resistance sits overhead at ... 

Please sign up for a free trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

View a short video: Bill Baruch: Trading Futures. Gold, USD, yuan.

Recorded: TradersExpo Chicago July 24, 2018.
Duration: 4:34.