US benchmarks pared back this morning from Wednesday night highs. Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex and Treasury markets and today’s economic calendar.

Bill Baruch’s FX Rundown short video for Dec. 12-13 here.

The ECB holds their policy decision Thursday at 7:45 am and 8:30 am EDT. Brexit & U.S CPI have moved today's tape. What are our expectations, what do we think about USD, euro & Aussie?

 

E-mini S&P (December)

Wednesday’s close: Settled at 2652.50, up 11.25.

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks traded higher overnight but have pared back to unchanged as we approach intraday hours. Despite a calmer headline news cycle, Wednesday’s strong momentum puttered out once again as price action neared the psychological 2700 area. Most notably, late Wednesday UK Prime Minister May won a confidence vote and now plans to meet with EU leaders to further her Brexit framework.

This morning, the European Central Bank holds a policy decision at 7:45 am EDT. They are expected to announce the end of their QE purchases and President Mario Draghi holds a press conference at 8:30 am EDT. Domestically, a barrage of political battles for President Trump from a potential government shutdown to sentencing of his once close allies have all weighed on sentiment.

The economic calendar today brings weekly Jobless Claims and Import/Export Price Index data at 8:30 am EDT. There is also a 30-year auction at 1 pm EDT. U.S. equity markets continue their battle in the mid to low 2600 region, an area where we continue to see significant value heading into next week’s Fed meeting.

Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Trading Nation to discuss the layout for the NQ and how it can be a leader to the upside if certain chips fall into place.

Technicals: Price action is as fickle as ever and rallies have been sold into. Ultimately, this highlights the strength and significance of our two layers of major three-star resistance at ...

 

Crude Oil (January)

Wednesday’s close: Settled at 51.15, down 0.50.

Fundamentals: Crude Oil is more than $2 from its high Wednesday after the EIA inventory report underwhelmed and the IEA Monthly Report pointed to bloating inventories. Also weighing on the market are reports casting a cloud of uncertainty over the recent OPEC cooperation. First, while Wednesday’s EIA inventory report was not bullish, it was only bearish because of the expectations set by API the evening before; something that we noted was highly likely here Wednesday morning. As for the IEA Monthly Report and even Wednesday’s OPEC Monthly Report; their figures spook the market, plain and simple. However, they do not wholly take in the production management and cooperation achieved by OPEC. Finally, this is exactly why any doubt over last week’s OPEC cooperation will weigh heavily on the market, at least until we see production figures for December. For now, we do note that estimated U.S production in the lower 48 states did fall by 100,000 bpd last week.

Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Trading Nation to discuss Crude Oil at $50 and what it could mean for energy stocks.

Technicals: While we do see $50 as a value area, a continued assault on this psychological level is unhealthy and each instance heightens a potential break and close below major three-star support at ... 

Gold (February)

Wednesday’s close: Settled at 1250, up 2.8.

Fundamentals: Gold picture is a rosy one and our narrative has not flinched at the expectation of a very health finish to December and strong first quarter. Our concern does set with chasing a run above 1250. Strong moves, as such that were incurred over the last two weeks, must be capitalized on. This morning, the ECB released their policy statement confirming the end of QE, but the fireworks, as always, come with President Mario Draghi’s press conference. The currency picture is critical for Gold’s landscape, especially with the Dollar Index near a crucial level at 97.50-97.80. We discussed this in Wednesday’s FX Rundown video. Domestically, we look to weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EDT which have quietly risen above expectations for three weeks running and have not come in below (beaten) expectations since mid-October. It will be accompanied by Import/Export Price Index. At 1 pm EDT, there is a 30-year Bond auction, with downward pressure over the 48 hours, if this continues, it will weigh on Gold. However, we do maintain that dips in each will present a strong buy opportunity over the next week.

Technicals: Although we do not want to sound just as a broken record, in an attempt to exude the necessary cautions in the near-term to our longer-term landscape; we will do just that. We remain unequivocally bullish Gold. Still, traders must realize that major three-star resistance at ... 

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