The euro continues its wedge-like consolidation. Yen treks lower.  Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, reviews and previews the euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, Aussie and Canadian and the upcoming economic calendar.

 

Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.13675, down 4 ticks.

Fundamentals: The euro’s range of little more than half a penny tells a story of an ECB meeting that played out just as expected. They confirmed their QE bond buying program is ending this month and they hope to raise rates after next summer. ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged the softer data of late but seemed upbeat that the tightening labor market will push up wages. Their GDP forecast in 2019 was revised from 1.8% to 1.7%. In fact, the ECB’s comments were so in line with predictions that the small spike lower at 8:30 am EDT was arguably in part a reaction to the much better U.S. weekly Initial Jobless Claims read.

To close out the week, tomorrow brings December flash PMI data. Regionally, France is due at 3:15 am EDT and Germany at 3:30 am before the eurozone read at 4:00 am EDT. From the U.S, we look to Retail Sales at 8:30 am EDT, Industrial Production at 9:15 am, flash PMIs at 9:45 am and Business Inventories at 10:00 am.

Technicals: The euro continues its wedge-like consolidation. To the downside, first key support has been extremely constructive as the trend line from...

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8804, down 31.5 ticks.

Fundamentals: It is no surprise that the yen trekked lower today as the U.S. dollar remains at the highs of the year and Treasury prices continue to relieve overbought conditions. If this unenthusiastic trade were to get a boost in volume, there is not time better than tonight.

The Tankan Index Survey data is due tonight at 6:50 pm EDT. A slew of data from China includes Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment at 9:00 pm EDT. Lastly, from Japan, Industrial Production is due at 11:30 pm EDT.

Technicals: Price action is looking to test major three-star support at ... 

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7226, up 6 ticks.

Fundamentals: The Aussie continues to trade in a very favorable manner, remaining extremely constructive against crucial support. A breeze of more favorable trade winds has kept the currency stable despite the recent pullback. Today’s range was small but strength in commodities, specifically energies likely helped keep buyers at the table. Tonight will be pivotal with a slew of data coming from China. Remember, China is Australia’s number one trade partner. Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment are all due at 9:00 pm EDT.

Technicals: Price action battled and held perfectly at major three-star support at ... 

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .7488, down 3 ticks.

Fundamentals: The Canadian has stabilized from an 18-month low and price action ticked up as Crude Oil recovered strongly on the session. The strong U.S Dollar, Oil rout, trade uncertainty and poor domestic data has all weighed heavily on the currency in recent weeks and months. China’s data tonight will help or hurt overall global risk sentiment as will flash PMIs from Europe and the U.S. Still, for now it does not look like the Canadian is going anywhere unless the U.S. dollar fails.

Technicals: Overall, the Canadian feels oversold but there is no enthusiasm behind the trade technically or fundamentally. A close above ... 

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