Grain Outlook for Week of Jan.28

01/28/2019 11:04 am EST


Oliver Sloup

, Blue Line Futures

The big news from Friday is that the government is back open for three weeks, meaning that we will get a WASDE report on Feb. 8, reports Oliver Sloup.

Corn (CH)

Friday’s Close: Corn futures finished Friday’s session up 3¢ trading in a range of 4.5¢.

Fundamentals: The big news from Friday is that the government is back open for three weeks, meaning that we will get a WASDE report on Feb. 8. We will start compiling estimates from analysts and have those out for you over the next two weeks. Weather continues to be a focus on the South American crop as Mato Grosso’s safrinha crop is estimated to be 10% planted.

Technicals: We see resistance coming in from $3.82-$3.84½, if the bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we would expect to see a move towards $3.88-$3.90½. On the support side, there are a lot of indicators from 378 ½ down to 375 ¾. A close below this pocket would temporarily neutralize our bias.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 382-384 ½**, 388-390 ½****

Support: 375 ¾-378 ½***, 371 ¾-372 ½****

chart 1

Soybeans (SH)

Friday’s Close: March soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 7.25¢, trading in a range of 13.25¢.

Fundamentals: Estimates for 2019 acres are down about 4.5 million acres, not a huge surprise with the trade situation still looming. This week, the focus will be on U.S.-Chinese trade talks on Wednesday.

Technicals: The technical landscape has been shaping up well for soybeans over the past few months. Prices are now at the top end of our significant resistance pocket from $9.21¾-$9.27¾. If the bulls can achieve a conviction close above this pocket, we could see a surge in prices. The next meaningful resistance pocket doesn’t come in until $9.41-$9.47. On the flip-side, a failure to breakout will likely lend hand to some long liquidation, taking us back towards the bottom end of the recent range.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 921 ¾-927 ¾***, 941-947****

Pivot: 908 ½

Support: 899 ½-900**, 890 ½-894 ½****

chart 2

Wheat (WH)

Friday’s Close: March wheat future finished Friday’s session down 0.25¢, trading in a range of 6.25¢.

Fundamentals: Near record cold temperatures coupled with concerns over lack of cover for winter wheat have helped support prices in the early morning trade while corn and beans trade steady to lower. The U.S. dollar has a tourniquet in the overnight and early morning session, after a bloodbath in Friday’s session. If the weakness eventually continues this week, that would be supportive to wheat prices.

Technicals: Wheat futures managed to stabilize Friday afternoon on the 50-day moving average, after trading as much as 12.25¢ off of Thursday’s high. The bulls want to reclaim ground above the 100-day moving average at $5.32¾, this would likely encourage additional short covering and invite new buyers into the market. Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend for the last month, we are looking for that to continue.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance:529-530**, 537 ¾-543****

Pivot: 523 ¾

Support: 514 ¼-516 ¾**, 508-510**

chart 3

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