Crude oil prices are finding support despite bearish supply figures thanks to optimism over US-China trade negotiations, concerns over Venezuela and Saudi Arabia’s productions cuts, reports Phil Flynn, Senior Energy Analyst The PRICE Futures Group.

The price of crude oil is like a big love Valentine to oil bulls as the market rises despite bearish data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and news that Texas pumped the most tea since 1972.

Oil market pessimism has given way to oil price optimism as perceived progress on the U.S.-China Trade war front, along with the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia that is determined to drive the global oil market into a supply deficit. President Donald Trump reportedly is considering pushing back the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days, because he said the talks are going well and it will give negotiators time to cement a deal and unleash the bullish economic spirits.

The oil market is also starting to fret more about Venezuela and their heavy oil supply because the standoff does not look like it will have a quick end. While the U.S. and other Western Countries has recognized Juan Guaidó, an opposition leader, as Venezuela's interim president, disputed President Nicolas Maduro says he is not going anywhere. President Trump is going to talk about the "turmoil" in Venezuela with Colombian counterpart Ivan Duque. Every day Venezuelan oil is stranded, the more bullish it will be for oil products.

The AFP reports that Venezuela's opposition-controlled congress named new temporary board of directors to state-oil firm PDVSA and its U.S subsidiary on Wednesday, to attempt to wrest the OPEC nation's oil revenue from President Nicolas Maduro. An increasingly isolated Maduro lashed out at the congress leader Juan Guaidó, saying in an interview that he would face the courts "sooner or later" for violating the constitution after he declared himself interim president last month.

Although many Western countries have recognized Guaidó as legitimate head of state, Maduro retains control of state institutions and Guaidó needs funds if he is to assemble an interim government. Controlling PDVSA's U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum, Venezuela's most valuable foreign asset, would go some way to helping in that, though seizing the reigns of PDVSA itself seems improbable while Maduro remains in power.

Oil is in breakout mode as the risk-on trade is feeling the love. Yes, it was a bearish EIA report but that may not matter. U.S. refineries operated at 85.9% of their operable capacity last week, a bigger than expected drop. This could be because of maintenance but also because refineries are missing heavy sour Venezuelan and Saudi crude. A drop in demand led to bearish Petro builds across the board. The EIA said crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 450.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five-year average for this time of year. Motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week, about 4% above the five- year average for this time of year.

Demand did fall off the map but, on average, demand is still strong. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 0.7% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.3 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 6.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.