JPMorgan (JPM) has broken out to new highs this week, but sits near a perilous technical level, writes Elizabeth Harrow.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has broken out to new highs this week, with the bank stock extending a recent bounce off its 40-day moving average to trade at its highest levels since early December. The stock has rallied about 17% from its Dec. 24 closing low, but data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White suggests that JPM is on a collision course with an unequivocally bearish technical level.

Specifically, JPM closed Monday's session within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average. Over the last three years, there have been two prior instances of JPM rallying up to test resistance at this trendline after a prolonged stretch below it; the stock's returns going forward have been bleak.

One month after a test of resistance at its 160-day moving average, JPM was negative on both occasions, with the average return amounting to a drop of 14.40%. Based on Monday's close at $107.19, a comparable decline this time around would place JPMorgan shares as far south as $91.75 one month from now, matching the stock's late-December intraday lows.

JPM's 200-day moving average is also hovering in the area, and while the stock's returns following 200-day tests haven't been quite as bleak, they're certainly not too encouraging. Following two tests of resistance at this benchmark trendline over the past two years, JPM's average 21-day return is a loss of 4.02%.

As of right now, shares of the Dow component are hovering very close to both their 160- and 200-day moving averages, so traders will want to wait for evidence of a firm rejection (intraday advances above, followed by closes below) before pulling the trigger on a bearish short-term JPM play.

The banking sector could well get a downside catalyst from the Fed this week, when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to stand pat— and traders will be paying close attention to the group's statement for hints of a prolonged pause on interest rates, or signs of a downturn in the U.S. economy. Depending on the tenor of the statement, it could be a rough finish to the week for JPM and its big banking peers.

Meanwhile, short-term put options on JPM are inexpensive right now, whether you're a shareholder looking to hedge or a speculator banking on an imminent slide. Trade-Alert pegs 30-day at-the-money implied volatility on the stock at 17.5%, which registers in the modest 25th percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term JPM options have priced in lower volatility expectations only 25% of the time during the past year, even as the bank prepares to report earnings in mid-April.