Major Market Ranges for Week of Aug. 25: Trends & Bulldozer Breakouts

08/23/2019 2:24 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Next week’s initial low in the S&P 500 has already been breached but we have amended the S&P range accordingly, reports Trevor Smith.

Break out your breakout tools for trends and wide ranges across markets. A new global induced breakout set-up is forming in the S&P 500, gold, currencies and crude oil.

If global trade war fears are not creating enough volatility for you, official Federal Reserve research on geomagnetic storms’ effects on people’s moods and stock returns, indicate that since geomagnetic storm activity is higher today, markets could be more volatile. Monday is an active space weather day with solar winds amidst current market confusion.

Last week, most predicted range extrema were close but did not hit; 4/5 near-target, weekly-expiration option spread trades worked. The euro upside break did not yet happen. The euro hammer-tail candle of June 1 near a strongly defended price is also current price. Monitor the euro for bullishness.

Last week, I mentioned that the “Crazy Crude” breakout had not occurred. So far, this week is an inside range (meaning this week’s highs/lows are within/less than the highs/lows of last week) for Crude Oil. It is further evidence for a large range breakout- monitor Crude Oil.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Near-Target Trades Relative to Friday’s Midday-Close)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2825-2890; Low Range 2874-2860

Buy 2875/2880 weekly call spread (rationale: weekly pivot area overhead 2888); sell call spread 2865/60 (rationale: downward momentum into early next week, low retest likely of 2857-50)

Japanese Yen

High Range 9552-9500; Low Range 9460-9440  

Sell small weekly put spread 9500/9525; overall technically bearish for high reversal to 9485, but trending math prevails here as does recent breakout upside history toward recent highs.

Euro FX

High Range 1.125-1.118 Low Range 1.114-1.110

Buy 1117 straight call, 1117//11195 call spread  (rationale: bull engulf low candle Daily chart, volume surged)

Gold

High Range $1569-$1552 Low Range $1490-$1470

Sell $1535/$1540 weekly put spread to reverse position selling call spreads if high of week made early by buying back short put spread, selling call spread near highs as down is likely true direction to $1528 (62% approx. chance) the weekly pivot or $1510 extended range midpoint.

Crude Oil 5550 5400 5475md

High Range $5609-$5476; Low Range $5426-$5308

Buy long call spreads weekly near $5450/$5475 (rationale: weekly pivot/range midpoint between the strikes; near 80% chance $5475 but must be exceeded for spread to profit).

Last Week’s Projected Ranges Versus Actuals As of Fri., Aug. 23.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2957-2925; Low Range 2837-2825

Actual: 2939-2857

Buy 2890/2895 weekly call spread

Japanese Yen

High Range 9519-9486; Low Range: 9365-9325

Actual: 9514-9383

Sell weekly call spread 9450/9400

Euro FX High Range 1.122-1.117; Low Range 1.109-1.105

Actual: 1117-1107

Buy 1117/1115 call spread

Gold

High Range $1553-$1535; Low Range: $1504-$1487

Actual: $1539-$1502

Sell $1525/$1530 weekly call spread

Crude Oil

High Range $5904-$5760; Low Range $5367-$5244

Actual: $5713-$5324

Buy long call and long put spreads weekly near 5550/ 5600

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