While there has been a lot of focus—and rightly so— on equity markets, here is a technical outlook on the softs sector from Phillip Streible.

With so much focus on the volatile moves in equities, there are interesting opportunities on commodity markets, especially the softs. As we enter bear market conditions, traders may want to focus on futures where the can make trades on either side of the market.

Cocoa (May)

Fundamentals: The cocoa market had a recovery into the close yesterday however is off to a weak tone this morning tracking equities lower. Surprisingly managed money still remains long. Expect weaker demand tone especially out of Europe.

Technicals: Cocoa has mild resistance at 2528 which is the 200-day moving average. Keep an eye on the potential triple bottom setting up. That should conclude the current chart pattern. The trend trading system triggered a short on Feb 28th at 2671 and has a stop close only working at 2594.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 2525***, 2644****
Pivot: 2408
Support: 22.50***, 2200****

image

Sugar (May)

Fundamentals: With crude oil down 1.70 this morning at $25.25 when this article was written, the selling pressure from outside markets has been a killer to sugar. Watch for a snap back rally soon however reduced demand should put the market in line with the reduced supply picture.

Technicals: The Trend Trading system established a short on March 2nd at 13.81 and the buy stop is at 13.94.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 12.11***, 13.20****
Pivot: 11.62
Support: 10.75***, 10.50****

image

Coffee (May)

Fundamentals: Forming a base in the low 100's and slowly stopping out the longs. I do like the chart pattern however the demand is going to be off. This market may be worthy of a call spread.

Technicals: Trend traders are long with positions established on March 3rd at 122.20 and their sell trigger is down at 102.71.

Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 116.15***, 122.20****
Pivot:112.00
Support: 102.55***, 99.55****

image

Orange Juice (May)

Technicals: Trend traders are short on March 9 at 94.05 and the buy trigger is at 99.39.

Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 97.58***, 99.09****
Pivot:96.68
Support: 94.00***, 92.05****

image

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com.  

Please sign up for at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each morning. Get our Trade Alerts, up 4.6% in January and up 15% since inception last year!