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Are Apple Owners Panicking?
10/19/2012 12:26 pm EST
Owners of Apple stock seem to be panicking about the stock's recent price decline, but MoneyShow's Jim Jubak has a different take on what Apple investors should be doing now.
So, what’s the matter with Apple? I mean, the stock is down 10%! We’re ready to panic.
Well, you know the problem is that nobody really paid any attention to the numbers as Apple was going up, and now no one is paying any attention to the numbers as Apple was going down. What we’re really doing here is we’ve got a reaction to the fact that Apple moved above $700. People are selling off, taking profits.
You’ve got a relatively recent negative news stream where everything seems to be important. So you’ve got stories about, well, there are not enough iPhone 5s to go around. Some of them are coming from the factories in China that have got scratches and dents and nicks, and Apple is sending those back, and they’re shutting down some of the factories in China.
All this, you know, makes it seem like, well, Apple’s this huge bubble and we’re now seeing the real picture, and it’s going to pop, and yada, yada, yada.
So if you look at it...one analyst's headline is, “Analysts cut forecast for iPhone sales.” Well, the forecast was cut from 53 million iPhones in 2012 down to 49. That seems significant until you remember that only three weeks ago, the analysts were ratcheting it up from 40 to 50 million.
So all we’re really doing is taking some of the hype out of this on the basis, with all the problems that we’ve got in terms of nicked cases and a lousy piece of software for mapping, and some people who are saying, “Well, you know, it’s not any big deal, it just, you know, doesn’t look that different than before.”
You’re seeing this stuff fly out of the stores—people are unable to get what they want—so indeed what we’re seeing is profit-taking in Apple. We’re seeing some people try to make money on the downside out of Apple.
And really the question is, OK, when we get around to October 25 or so when Apple does its earnings, are we going to see any real dent in a stock that’s still only trading at 20 or 25 times earnings, is likely to say really nice things about the next quarter, which is when you’re going to get the really big jump in iPhone sales?
So, if you can sort of hang on—or indeed, decide that you want to buy some when it gets down to a reasonable price, because you’ve always wanted to be back in—this is a correction in a stock that’s had a really, really good rally. I don’t think it’s anything more than that.
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