Specific Predictions for Gold, Oil
07/01/2011 11:15 am EST
A year ago, few people believed gold would hit $1500 per ounce. Hubert Senters confesses that he too was a skeptic back then, but he now reveals some very specific price targets for gold and oil that are based on proven technical methods.
Where is oil headed into the summer, and where is gold headed as well for the rest of this year? Our guest today is Hubert Senters, here to talk about that.
So, Hubert, let’s start with gold. We’ve had huge run-up here; it still has potential to reach all-time highs. What are your thoughts for the rest of 2011?
About a year and a half ago, you had a lot of people saying, “It’s going $1500. It’s going to $1500.” I was like, “That’s craziness. There’s no way it’s going to happen.”
It actually took a little bit longer than some of the expectations to get to $1500. I think it has more room above $1500. I don’t know how much more room.
Targets that I have set on physical gold and gold contracts that I’m trading right now—so I have some of the coins and some of the little bars and stuff, too; the physical gold—but a good target for gold right now that I have for myself is $1659.
Support that I have on gold right now in this area would be $1578 if it breaks above that all-time new target.The support that I want to buy on a pullback would be $1463.
The $1659 level is very specific. What it is it about that level?
That’s just if I’m looking at $1468, that’s just a pullback, and it’s about a 50% pullback off of the most recent low swing to high swing. So all I’m doing is I’m just trying to buy it at a 50% discount off of the most recent swing up.
Alright, and then let’s talk about oil. Coming into summer, you expect oil to go up, but everybody says, “Well, global demand may not be there to support that.” What are your thoughts?
I don’t think they’re making any more oil, so I think it will eventually go up.
The way I’ve been trading oil lately is if it’s above $101.50, I like the long side. If it’s below $101.50, I like the short side. Currently, I’m short crude and my target is $85.
It’s just a certain level of support and resistance based upon a Fibonacci pullback.
So do you pretty much follow that technically? Do you look at all the fundamentals and the news about oil?
I’m a terrible fundamental guy. I mean, I can read something or watch a news program or something like that, and then they’ll slant my kind of angle on the market, so I try to stay away from all that stuff and just try to purely play the price action on the equities and on the futures.
Finally, on gold and oil ETFs: You’re talking about the physical commodity, or futures? What do you like to do?
On gold, I trade the physical. In other words, I own some actual physical coins and little gold bars, and then I also trade the futures contract.
I don’t trade the ETFs or the gold stocks. Some of them are one-to-one, some of them aren’t. Then on crude oil, I trade the big contract, just the CO.