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The Fed's pause witnesses its concern over growing economic weakness. As usual, the central bank has probably over-tightened monetary policy, leading to a recession this year. With no major financial crisis in the offing, however, the business downturn will likely be moderate with the US stock market falling not much below last December's low. A soft landing, on the other hand, would postpone the recession until 2020.
Gary Shilling
Duration: 20:13