Although rain has alleviated last summer’s wide-spread drought, it hasn’t completely resolved it, and Andy Waldock of Commodity & Derivative Advisors details what you can expect in the cattle and corn markets this year.
The outlook for cattle prices in 2013 appears to be even higher than 2012 due to declining herd sizes and an increasingly favorable export climate. The US cattle herd has been in decline over the last few years. The drought of 2012 has led to the culling of more animals including non-productive dairy cows and heavier steers that have managed to avoid the feedlots. The addition of these animals into the production mix did three things. First, it increased the average weight of cattle coming to market. Secondly, the increasingly tight supplies already pushed the April live cattle futures contract above the 2012 highs. Finally, it has led to the smallest US starting herd since 1952.
The USDA’s January cattle inventory report shows a total US cattle herd of 89.3 million head. This is the smallest calf crop since 1949 and is the 18th consecutively smaller calf crop. Producers and finishers appear to be coming to the consensus that it’s better to have fewer animals at heavier weights than more animals at lighter weights. The University of Missouri points out that steer weights are up over 34 lbs. from last year and December marked the 49th consecutive week of heavier steers on a year over year basis. There is an argument within the industry as to the real reason behind the growing weights between those who say weights are increasing due to better animals being culled versus the addition of the beta-agonist, ractopamine.
Politically, 2013 will see a good boost in demand due to Japan’s relaxation of the ban on US beef following the mad cow episode of late 2003. This year, Japan will allow US imports of cattle up to 30 months old. This relaxes the 20-month age limit rule that effectively crushed US exports to Japan. Prior to mad cow, Japan was the number one destination for US beef exports. In fact, Japan imported more than 500,000 tons of American beef as recently as 2000 in contrast to 2012’s total imports estimate of just over 200,000 tons. Many agribusiness insiders see the relaxation of the age limit as Japan’s recognition of globally tight supplies for the foreseeable future.
We’ve addressed the certainty of a declining cattle supply in 2013, as well as sourcing added demand in this marketing year due to freer trade, that leads us to the primary variable of input costs. This brings us to the feed vs. ethanol battle over the 2013 corn crop. Some of the blend tax incentives for ethanol producers were allowed to expire in 2012. Ethanol producers are still bound to the Renewable Fuels Standards mandate that shows 2013 as the first time that the mandate’s target is set beyond the blend wall. This year, 13.8 billion gallons of our fuel supply is supposed to come from ethanol. However due to our primary blend of 10% ethanol, we are unlikely to produce the 13.8 billion gallons to meet the mandate target.
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