Jubak Picks Portfolio

Yum's Not-So-Tasty Dilemma
Specialty: STOCKS
Keyword Image
Published: 12/20/2012
By Jim Jubak, Senior Markets Editor, MoneyShow.com
Tickers mentioned: YUM, MCD

The parent of KFC was already slowing down in China, its biggest market, before the quality control scandal came along that threatens to drag it down further, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.

Shares of Yum! Brands (YUM) continue to take a beating-they're down another 1.16% as of 3:30 p.m. New York time-on reports from China alleging that suppliers to the company's KFC chain had injected antiviral drugs and growth hormones into chickens they sold to Yum! Brands restaurants.

China's Internet sites, such as Sina Weibo, have seen outrage and calls for a boycott of KFC until consumes can be sure KFC food is safe. (The alleged actions by suppliers would be in violation of Chinese food safety regulations.)

McDonald's (MCD) operations in China have been hit by similar allegations, but the company has responded with a statement saying that its chicken in China was tested by a third-party laboratory and complied with government regulations.

That, plus McDonald's lower profile in China-KFC is by far the dominant fast-food brand in China-has left McDonald's shares relatively undamaged. (China accounts for about half of Yum! Brands' revenue and profits. McDonald's is a member of my Jubak's Picks portfolio.)

Before you decide to treat this scare as a temporary glitch in Yum's China growth story-and an opportunity to pick up shares-remember that even before this incident, Yum! Brands looked to be having trouble in China. And that the stock has been falling since it closed at $74.47 on November 29. Shares of Yum! Brands are down 11.2% from that date through December 20.

On November 30, Yum! told investors to expect a 4% drop in same-store sales in China for the fourth quarter of 2012. That's a shocking decline from the company's 21% gain in same-store sales in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Part of the reason for the decline is a tough comparison with that 21% gain in the fourth quarter of 2011, and part of the reason is related to the slowdown in China's growth from 2011 to 2012.

But Wall Street analysts immediately noted that some of Yum! Brands competitors in China weren't reporting the same kind of sales declines. For example, Starbucks (SBUX) said on December 5 that it hadn't seen a slowdown in same-store sales growth over the past two months.

Page 1 | Page 2 | Next Page

TRADESHOW LOCATIONS

Show Logo
San Francisco
 • August 15 – 17, 2013
Free eLetters

Receive all-new market analysis and commentary, timely recommendations, exclusive videos, and much more from hundreds of top experts. Subscribe today!

INVESTING ELETTERS

   More Details

Daily Investing Alert

Weekly Investing eLetter

Hot Off The Tape Weekly Video eLetter

TRADING ELETTERS

   More Details

Daily Trading Alert

Trading Lessons

Trader Talk Podcast

Most Popular

Keyword Image The Week Ahead: Will 2013 Be Another Double-Digit Year?
A test of all-time stock highs looks highly likely next year, but the market's reaction to fiscal...
15 Most Overbought S&P 500 Stocks
Large-Cap Winners & Losers
Investors Bearish...Time to Buy!
Sponsored Links

American Water Works Company, Inc.

American Water was founded in 1886 and is the largest publicly traded US water and wastewater…

CEMIG

Cemig (NYSE:CIG) is one of Brazil's largest and most profitable electricity concession holders.…

Best Choice Software, Inc.

Seasonal/Cycle Charts are the newest and latest development by Best Choice Software and have…

Royal Dutch Shell, plc

The Shell Group, (The Group), is a diverse group of energy companies with around 90,000 employees…