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As the market digests its recent gains MoneyShow’s Tom Aspray is looking at stocks in the homebuilders sector, which is now in a seasonally strong period.

The stock market held up pretty well Monday as the S&P 500 is bumping into the 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance in the 1408 area. The McClellan oscillator, a short-term A/D indicator, has risen from a low of -285 on November 15 to a high last Friday at +140. It has now turned lower and a further pullback is likely.

A market correction over the next week or so is expected to be a buying opportunity and, of course, the challenge is to find the sectors and stocks that are likely to be leading the next market rally.

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The volume surge in the homebuilding stocks in October 2011 suggested a low could be forming and the fundamental data has been very positive for most of the year. This chart of the homebuilder index, from early in the year, shows that the index typically bottoms in the October-November period and then peaks in April -May.

In the next week or so the leading homebuilders ETF, as well as three top homebuilders should drop back into their initial support zones where new buying could be done.

Chart Analysis: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) has had a great year as it is up over 54% versus just a 14% gain in the Spyder Trust (SPY). Many may be surprised that only 26% of the ETF is invested in homebuilders with building products stocks making up over 29%.

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• The weekly chart shows that XHB recently retested the breakout level, line a, in the $24 area, which also corresponded to the 20 week EMA.


• There is stronger support at $22.43, which was the May high.


• The weekly relative performance or RS analysis continues to look strong as it is well above its WMA, which was last tested in July.


• The RS line has been holding well above its long-term uptrend, line e.


• The volume spike in October 2011 (see circle) was very bullish.


• The weekly OBV has dropped back below its WMA and the uptrend, line d, but did confirm the recent highs.


• The daily studies have moved back above their MAs, which is part of the bottoming process.


• The next major resistance is in the $32-$35 area.

PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) dropped back to test its uptrend (line f) on November 15 as it had a low of $14.55. PHM has since rallied back to initial resistance in the $17 area.

• The drop also tested the former long term resistance, line e, that went back to the 2010 and 2011 highs.


• The daily relative performance did confirm the recent highs but it has since dropped below its WMA.


• The RS line is still holding well above the uptrend, line g.


• The daily OBV has moved back above its WMA as volume has been strong on the recent rally.


• The OBV has held well above its daily uptrend, line h.


• There is minor support at $16.30 and then in the $15.50 area

NEXT PAGE: Two More Homebuilder Stocks Showing Strength