Against the backdrop of a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report this morning, MoneyShow’s Tom Aspray conducts a review of the Charts in Play portfolio, with updated recommendations.
The mid-week decline in the stock market to near-term support was well supported, which is a positive sign. Stocks got a pleasant surprise this morning as the just released jobs report was much better than expected. The stock index futures are showing nice gains. A sharply higher close today with very strong A/D numbers should push the A/D line to new mutli-year highs.
The major averages still need to close above the early December highs to reinforce the positive momentum. The market has clearly relieved the oversold readings from the middle of November when just 20% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks were above their 50-day MAs. Now over 60% are above their MA and the September peak was near at 80%.
The overseas markets continue to act the best as they have since early last month. Some of the sectors I have recommended are doing well, but others are showing more signs of weakness than I would like, so a change in strategy and stops is therefore needed.
Chart Analysis: The Spyder Trust (SPY) tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $142.99 on Monday as the high was $142.92.
- A strong close above this level should signal a rally to the downtrend, line a, and the daily starc+ bands at $144.60-$144.80.
- The weekly starc+ band (not shown) is now at $147.80.
- The daily NYSE Advance/Decline line has broken its downtrend, line a, but it has yet moved above the October highs.
- The weekly A/D line (not shown) turned higher three weeks ago and is likely to improve further this week.
- The McClellan Oscillator broke through its downtrend, line c, on November 20 and is holding above the zero line.
- There is first support now at $140.37 and then in the $139.70 area.
- The 200-day MA and daily starc- band are now at $138.70.
The SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) has reversed over the past four days after peaking at $26.84. The homebuilders typically form a secondary seasonal low in late November and then rally into the April-May time frame.
- Though the monthly analysis is clearly positive for XHB the daily chart shows a potential topping formation, line d.
- One can make a case for an H&S top with the neckline (line e) now in the $24 area.
- This also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support with the 50% level just under $23.
- The daily uptrend in the relative performance or RS analysis, line f, has just been broken but it did confirm the recent highs.
- The daily OBV did not confirm the price high and has formed lower highs, line g. Volume has picked up as XHB has declined.
- The weekly OBV (not shown) is well below its WMA and has broken its uptrend.
- There is initial resistance now at $26-$26.40 and then in the $27 area.
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