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One of the most common ways to find a correlation between markets is to use metals, mainly gold (and oil), to predict currency movements. Technician Greg Harmon of Dragonfly Capital urges caution and patience.

I heard a well known television commodity analyst say that he liked gold the other day, but only in yen terms. I have heard this type of analysis before so it did not surprise me. And part of the explanation, that gold in dollar terms is in a downtrend makes sense. But taking a look at gold priced in other currencies including the Japanese yen, I would find it hard to say that I like gold in terms of any currency. If you made me buy gold with your money, then perhaps the least sucky currency to use would be yen but it still looks like you are better off keeping that money somewhere else. Take a look at the chart of gold priced in yen below. It is pulling back from a triple top at 1.45 confirming a shooting star reversal candle from last week lower.

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It may turn around and break through that triple top but for now it is pulling back. The time to buy gold in yen terms was in July when it was moving higher off of the 100-week simple moving average (SMA). The time will come again if the pullback holds at the 20-week SMA (the middle of the Bollinger bands), or if it breaks and closes above that 1.45 level. But until then look somewhere else.

By Greg Harmon of Dragonfly Capital