COMMODITIES

Charts of gold futures and the leading gold ETF are beginning to signal a short-term correction, which coincides neatly with historical seasonal weakness. MoneyShow's Tom Aspray shares the key levels to watch, including his preferred points for reentry on the next pullback.

The gold futures and leading gold ETF, the Spyder Gold Trust (GLD), dropped sharply Wednesday, but then closed up 1.5% for a new closing rally high on Thursday. For most of the summer, GLD traded in a fairly tight range, as the levels of support at $148.40 to $148.60 and resistance at $156.80 to $158.46 were well established.

Many gold investors had lost interest by the summer, as headlines like “Gold Loses Its Luster” were common. Fundamental factors like plunging demand from China and India were used as reasons why prices could drop even lower.

From a technical perspective, fundamentals always lag. This is especially true when it comes to commodity prices, which frequently rise or fall sharply in reaction to a fundamental report. It is those “quiet periods” that offer the best investing or trading opportunities.

Since July 27, GLD has closed up eight out of ten weeks, with GLD up almost 10% in just the past six weeks. During the summer there were few articles about gold, but now it is very hard to find anyone who is bearish, as the newly minted bulls try to out do each other with higher and higher upside forecasts.

Real investors or traders know that the more important question is not how high gold might go, but how much you have to risk in order establish and then stay with a position. Even if you think the December gold futures are going to reach $2,000 ($218 above Thursday’s close), the question you need to ask is, are you willing to risk $150 to make $200?

An objective technical appraisal can help those who are not long develop a sound buying strategy.

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Chart Analysis: The monthly chart of the Comex continuous gold contract shows that it is close to it’s highest close since August 2011 when prices were above the monthly Starc+ band.

  • Prices are currently well below the Starc+ band, which for October is at $1,897.

  • The upside target from the continuation pattern that has formed since the 2011 high is at $2,031.

  • The upper boundary of the trading channel (line a) is at $2,104 in October.

  • The monthly on-balance volume (OBV) has moved further above its WMA and is leading prices higher, as it is closer to its 2011 high than the prices.

  • Each new monthly high in prices has been confirmed by the OBV, which makes the major trend positive.

  • There is initial monthly support at $1,687, which was the September low.

  • The weekly chart of the Spyder Gold Trust (GLD) reveals that the weekly Starc+ band was tested three weeks ago. The triangle or flag formation (lines d and e) was completed at the start of September (a good buy point).

    • The measured target from the chart formation is in the $200 area, while the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement target is at $197.50.

    • The weekly Starc+ band is at $178.50 with the monthly Starc+ band at $183.70.

    • The weekly OBV finally broke out of its tight range (line f) to confirm the breakout in prices.

    • There is first weekly support at $166.30, with the rising 20-week EMA at $162.45.

    NEXT: A Look at GLD in Multiple Time Frames

    Tickers Mentioned: Tickers: GLD, IAU