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The SPDR Gold Trust
) bounced last week, but the gold futures were a bit lower early Tuesday. The daily uptrend, line c, is now at $152, which is just above the recent lows at $151.70.
- The minor 61.8% Fibonacci support level is at $150
- As noted earlier this month, the equality targets are in the $143.50 area
- A retest of the July breakout level would mean a decline to the $147 area with the 38.2% Fibonacci support from the 2008 lows just above $140
- The daily OBV is still below its declining weighted moving average (WMA) with long-term support at line e
- The weekly OBV (not shown) turned up last week but is still below its weighted moving average
- There is first resistance now at $157.50 with stronger resistance at $162
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) had a high in November at $72.42 and is now down over 14% from the highs. There is next support at $60.30-$59.70 with stronger support in the $56.90 area (line f).
- The long-term weekly uptrend, line g, is now at $55.28
- The weekly relative performance, or RS analysis, completed its bottom formation in August but has been declining for the past five weeks
- The daily RS analysis (not shown) suggests it is just correcting, not forming a major top
- The weekly OBV has just dropped below its weighted moving average but did confirm the recent highs
- There is first resistance at $63.20 and then stronger resistance above $66
What It Means: The action of the A/D line is positive and suggests that stocks are likely to test and probably surpass the November highs. Year-end window dressing by underinvested portfolio managers should also be a positive for stocks.
Though there are no daily buy signals, another wave of selling is likely to be an opportunity for those not invested in the gold market to look at the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).
How to Profit: For Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ), go 50% long at $5.76 and 50% long at $5.32 with a stop at $4.49 (risk of approx. 19%). If filled, move the stop to $5.19 once $6.60 is overcome.
For the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), go 50% long at $148.20 and 50% long at $144.80 with a stop at $139.56 (risk of approx. 4.7%).
For Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), go 50% long at $60.12 and 50% long at $59.20 with a stop at $55.18 (risk of approx. 7.5%).