It wouldn’t take much for crude oil prices — already supported by prolonged disruptions in the Middle East — to rally further. If oil prices start to rise a few more dollars, that could trigger fresh technical buying, writes Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at TradingCandles.
Brent crude oil prices have held steady around the $95 level as investors weigh direction from both the US and Iran. Since the weekend, both Iran and the US have been talking tough, and prices have remained relatively firm, maintaining much of the gap that was created over the weekend. This suggests there is an increased risk of re-escalation.
Fresh technical buying could see prices break above the bearish trend line that has been in place since April 13. A break above that trend line could then pave the way for oil to rise back toward the $100-per-barrel level. This is effectively the line in the sand now, given its importance as a psychologically significant level.
For now, support comes in around the $94–$95 area, where prices have held since the weekend. Although there was a brief dip below that level, it was short-lived. Therefore, the $94–$95 range remains key to watch.
A decisive break below it would be a short-term bearish outcome, likely requiring meaningful de-escalation in geopolitical tensions to drive prices lower. If that area were to give way, prices could fall toward $90 and possibly retest last week’s lows of around $86 per barrel.
These are the next key downside targets. However, given the sticky nature of prices at current levels, risks are once again tilting to the upside.
