Turkish ETF Reaches Attractive Levels
12/27/2010 9:35 am EST
Chart Analysis: Turkey has been one of world's top-performing markets since the March 2009 lows. The iShares MSCI Turkey Index Fund (TUR) peaked at $79 on November 13, having risen almost 315% from the 2009 lows at $19.05. The ability of TUR to move through major resistance in September appears to have long-term significance and the breakout level is now being tested. TUR has corrected 20% from its highs and has recently tested the rising 40-week moving average (MA), which is now at $63.20. The surprising cut in Turkish interest rates in mid-December did put some additional pressure on stocks. The 50%-61.8% retracement support zone using the rally from the flash crash lows is in the $57.50-$61.50 area. The weekly on-balance volume (OBV) has dropped back below its rising 21-week weighted moving average (WMA) but is still above its long-term uptrend. The daily technical studies are still negative but are starting to show some signs of bottoming.
What It Means: Many still feel that some of the best gains in 2011 are likely to be in the emerging markets, and the Middle East is getting quite a bit of attention. Technically, the correction in TUR looks quite normal so far, and once the decline is over, a rebound to the $77-$79 area, if not new highs, is then likely.
How to Profit: For the higher-risk portion of your portfolio, an idea would be to go long TUR at $62.20 or better with a stop at $57.87. If longs are established, raise the stop to breakeven once TUR moves back above $69.50.
Tom Aspray, professional trader and analyst, serves as senior editor for MoneyShow.com. The views expressed here are his own.