Turkish ETF Reaches Attractive Levels

12/27/2010 9:35 am EST

Focus: ETFS

Thomas Aspray

, Professional Trader & Analyst

Click to Enlarge

Chart Analysis: Turkey has been one of world's top-performing markets since the March 2009 lows. The iShares MSCI Turkey Index Fund (TUR) peaked at $79 on November 13, having risen almost 315% from the 2009 lows at $19.05. The ability of TUR to move through major resistance in September appears to have long-term significance and the breakout level is now being tested. TUR has corrected 20% from its highs and has recently tested the rising 40-week moving average (MA), which is now at $63.20. The surprising cut in Turkish interest rates in mid-December did put some additional pressure on stocks. The 50%-61.8% retracement support zone using the rally from the flash crash lows is in the $57.50-$61.50 area. The weekly on-balance volume (OBV) has dropped back below its rising 21-week weighted moving average (WMA) but is still above its long-term uptrend. The daily technical studies are still negative but are starting to show some signs of bottoming.

What It Means: Many still feel that some of the best gains in 2011 are likely to be in the emerging markets, and the Middle East is getting quite a bit of attention. Technically, the correction in TUR looks quite normal so far, and once the decline is over, a rebound to the $77-$79 area, if not new highs, is then likely.

How to Profit: For the higher-risk portion of your portfolio, an idea would be to go long TUR at $62.20 or better with a stop at $57.87. If longs are established, raise the stop to breakeven once TUR moves back above $69.50.

Tom Aspray, professional trader and analyst, serves as senior editor for MoneyShow.com. The views expressed here are his own.


Related Articles on ETFS

Keyword Image
ETFs that Bet on Blockchain
02/14/2018 5:00 am EST

Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies have become all the rage over the past year, n...