The moves forecasted by the COT signals make them very adaptable to commodity based ETFs, writes And...
Two Country ETFs Beating the S&P
07/12/2012 9:50 am EST
The rallies in these two emerging ETFs have been impressive enough to suggest that global markets may be bottoming.
Stocks are under pressure again overnight as concerns over the global economies continue to grow. The split opinion in the FOMC, reflected in Wednesday’s minutes, pressured stocks Wednesday, but once again the averages closed well above the lows.
The market is clearly geared up for Friday’s release of data on China’s economic growth, with the latest estimates expecting second-quarter growth of 7.7%, which would be the lowest rate in three years. In overnight news, Chinese bank loans were higher than expected which could be a sign that their efforts to turn the economy around are starting to work.
The major US averages are now testing more important support. To keep the outlook positive, stocks will need to reverse to the upside by early next week.
Many of the other world markets also bottomed in early June. These two country ETFs in particular have significantly outperformed the S&P 500.
Chart Analysis: The iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) is up 11.5% from the June lows, and is not far below the May highs and stronger resistance in the $13.13 area (line a).
- EWS has been moving higher for the past week as US stocks have been correcting
- If the May highs are exceeded, there is further resistance in the $13.60 to $14 area
- The relative performance, or RS analysis has risen sharply since early June, as it has just broken through resistance (line b). This indicates that EWS is outperforming the S&P 500, and the weekly analysis (not shown) also supports this view
- The on-balance volume (OBV) completed a short-term bottom in June and is still well above its rising WMA
- The weekly OBV (not shown) is also above its WMA
- There is first support now near $12.35, with more important levels at $11.90 to $12.20. A close below $11.50 would be negative
The iShares MSCI Mexico Investable (EWW) has been even stronger than EWS, as it is up 13.6% from the June lows. The next important resistance is in the $63.84 area (line d) and the April highs.
- A close above the 2011 high at $64.65 would be a major upside breakout
- The daily relative performance has completed its bottom formation by moving above its resistance (line e)
- The weekly RS line (not shown) is also well above its WMA
- The daily OBV is positive, but is lagging the price action, as it is well below the highs seen early in the year
- The weekly OBV (not shown) is much more positive, as it is above its WMA and very close to all-time highs
- There is minor support at $60.50, with more important levels in the $59.50 to $58.40 area. A daily close under $56 would be negative
What it Means: The strength of the rallies in both EWS and EWW has been impressive, and may be signaling an overall bottom in the global markets. Certainly these two are acting much better than the Spyder Trust (SPY), as respectively they are up 11.5% and 13.6% versus just a 5.5% gain for SPY.
The closeness to next strong resistance does not favor buying these at current levels, but I would look for a pullback over the next few weeks that should setup a much more favorable entry point.
How to Profit: I will be monitoring these ETFs, and those interested in buying should watch the secondary buy levels for an entry point and the key daily support levels for stop guidance.
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