USD/CHF Near Parity and Support

10/27/2009 12:01 am EST

Focus: FOREX

James Chen

Chief Technical Strategist, FX Solutions

Bearish price action on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, is approaching parity within the context of a steep, continuing downtrend. Parity (at one US dollar to one Swiss franc) was last hit in July of 2008. Therefore, the long-term low from last week, which fell just shy of reaching parity, represented a 15-month low for the pair.

Click to Enlarge
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)

Currently, the key near-term level to watch, as mentioned, is parity at 1.0000. But even if this is reached, there is likely further room to the downside for this pair potentially to fall. On any strong breakdown below parity, the major further support target to the downside resides around 0.9640, the all-time low for the pair that was reached in March 2008.

Within the context of the strong current downtrend, dynamic upside resistance resides in the region of the downtrend resistance line that extends from the April high.

By James Chen, chief technical strategist, FX Solutions

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