While the euro seems primed for a breakout in either direction, the current trend is to drift lower....
Slightly Bearish Consolidation for USD/CHF
03/10/2010 12:01 am EST
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(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
Price action on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has consolidated in a tight, slightly bearish consolidation right underneath a key long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the high hit in November 2008.
Since recently hitting this trend line in mid-February, price has bumped up against it several more times without breaking the dynamic resistance imposed by the line. Currently, since the lows around parity (1.0000) in early December, this pair has been entrenched in a medium-term uptrend.
The key upside event to watch for within the context of this current uptrend would be a breakout above the noted long-term downtrend line. In this event, a close upside resistance target resides around the key 1.1000 support/resistance price region. Downside support within the context of the current uptrend resides around the 1.0600 price region.
By James Chen, chief technical strategist, FXSolutions.com
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