The Strongest & Weakest Currencies

04/30/2013 9:00 am EST

Focus: CURRENCIES

New COT data shows little change in the way that large speculators and hedge funds were leaning toward last week, writes the staff at CountingPips.com, also describing new trends impacting the euro, pound, yen, and more.

The latest weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders trimmed their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week against the other major foreign currencies after slightly increasing their bets the previous week. Total speculator positions have continued to show little movement in the past few months, as can be seen from the chart above.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, registered an overall US dollar long position of $24.94 billion as of Tuesday April 23. This was a small decline from the total long position of $25.18 billion on April 16, according to position calculations by Reuters (US dollar positions against the total positions of eurofx, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc).

chart
Click to Enlarge

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The individual currency contracts quoted directly against the US dollar last week saw increases for the Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar while the euro, Australian dollar, Mexican peso, and the New Zealand dollar all had a declining number of net contracts for the week.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX: Weekly Change of -4,511

chart
Click to Enlarge

EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro decreased last week after rising for two consecutive weeks. Euro contracts fell to a total net position of -34,275 contracts in the data reported for April 23 following the previous week’s total of -29,764 net contracts on April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change

03/26/2013

-49095

-4211

04/02/2013

-65701

-16606

04/09/2013

-50858

+14843

04/16/2013

-29764

+21094

04/23/2013

-34275

-4511

British Pound Sterling: Weekly Change of +1,863

chart
Click to Enlarge

GBP: British pound spec positions improved last week to increase for a second consecutive week. British pound speculative positions rose last week to a total of -60,112 net contracts on April 23 following a total of -61,975 net contracts reported for April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

-66555

-5075

04/02/2013

-65020

+1535

04/09/2013

-69969

-4949

04/16/2013

-61975

+7994

04/23/2013

-60112

+1863

Japanese Yen: Weekly Change of +13,681

chart
Click to Enlarge

JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts rose last week after falling to the lowest level since March 12 the previous week. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of -79,730 net contracts on April 23 following a total of -93,411 net short contracts on April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

-89149

-9156

04/02/2013

-78171

+10978

04/09/2013

-77697

+474

04/16/2013

-93411

-15714

04/23/2013

-79730

+13681

NEXT PAGE: The Swissy, Commdolls, and Mexican Peso

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Swiss Franc: Weekly Change of +4,432

chart
Click to Enlarge

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions improved last week for a fourth consecutive week and to the best position since February 12. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures improved to a total of +1,179 contracts on April 23 following a total of -3,253 net contracts reported for April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

-12198

-1202

04/02/2013

-12015

+183

04/09/2013

-10014

+2001

04/16/2013

-3253

+6761

04/23/2013

1179

+4432

Canadian Dollar: Weekly Change of +4,234

chart
Click to Enlarge

CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved slightly last week after falling for three straight weeks and to a new low level in 2013. Canadian dollar positions edged higher to a total of -71,679 contracts as of April 23 following a total of -75,913 net contracts that were reported for April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

-62645

+2686

04/02/2013

-64544

-1899

04/09/2013

-71133

-6589

04/16/2013

-75913

-4780

04/23/2013

-71679

+4234

Australian Dollar: Weekly Change of -21,918

chart
Click to Enlarge

AUD: The Australian dollar large spec positions declined last week for a fourth consecutive week and to the lowest level since March 12. Aussie speculative futures positions fell to a total net amount of +31,257 contracts on April 23 after totaling +53,175 net contracts as of April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD


Date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

85515

+31460

04/02/2013

83971

-1544

04/09/2013

77879

-6092

04/16/2013

53175

-24704

04/23/2013

31257

-21918

New Zealand Dollar: Weekly Change of -3103

chart
Click to Enlarge

NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions declined last week after advancing for the previous four weeks and to a new 2013 high level. NZD contracts fell to a total of +27,705 net long contracts as of April 23 following a total of +30,808 net long contracts on April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD


date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

16916

+4439

04/02/2013

18387

+1471

04/09/2013

25150

+6763

04/16/2013

30808

+5658

04/23/2013

27705

-3103

Mexican Peso: Weekly Change of -4377

chart
Click to Enlarge

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts edged lower last week after rising the previous week. Peso positions fell to a total of +146,911 net speculative positions as of April 23 following a total of +151,288 contracts that were reported for April 16.

Last Five Weeks of Euro Fx Large Trader Positions: MXN


date

Lg Trader Net

Change Weekly

03/26/2013

128162

+18786

04/02/2013

142755

+14593

04/09/2013

142542

-213

04/16/2013

151288

+8746

04/23/2013

146911

-4377

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (three days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the US dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise vs. the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

By the Staff at CountingPips.com

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