USD/CAD: Will There Be Blood for USD Bulls?

04/09/2015 9:00 am EST

Focus: FOREX

By citing the events that took place in an American film about oil as a comparison, the staff at Forex.com charts how this currency pair is now testing the bottom of its range as oil prices rally and questions whether the bloodbath is now poised to shift back against the USD.

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen, that if we do find oil here—and I think there's a very good chance that we will—this community of yours will not only survive, it will flourish."

In his inimitable performance as Daniel Plainview in the 2007 movie, There Will Be Blood, Daniel Day-Lewis convinces the residents of a small California town called Little Boston to sell their drilling rights to him, promising massive prosperity for the small town. As the name of the movie suggests, the arrangement eventually takes a violent turn for the worse.

In some ways, Canadian dollar bulls felt a bit like the residents of Little Boston in the second half of last year. Flourishing on the back of strong oil prices in 2011 and 2012, the loonie surged to above parity against the US dollar, but as oil prices collapsed in the second half of last year, USD/CAD surged back to 1.2800 in sympathy. Based on the recent price action in WTI and USD/CAD though, the bloodbath may shift back against USD bulls next.

As we noted yesterday, WTI has surged to the top of its $44-$54 range this week, potentially putting new year-to-date highs in play. The recent rally in oil prices has led to a corresponding pullback in USD/CAD, with the North American pairing now testing the bottom of its range around 1.2400. With the MACD crossing below its signal line for the first time in nine months and the RSI at a similarly low level, there is evidence that the bears are finally wresting control of the market from the bulls.

Back in January, USD/CAD blasted through the 1.20-1.24 corridor in just two days, and if USD/CAD breaks conclusively below 1.2400, another quick drop back toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.20 could be in play. That said, USD/CAD’s 400-pip range has held for nearly three months now, so bulls will certainly try to defend the 1.2400 level; if USD/CAD bounces from that floor later this week, more sideways consolidation will be favored. As a final note, traders should keep a close eye on Friday’s Canadian jobs report as a possible catalyst for USD/CAD; expectations are low, with essentially no job growth and a steady 6.8% unemployment rate anticipated.

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By the Staff at Forex.com

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