I do not think the lows for 2009 have been made yet. Let me show you a chart that tells just one reason why I think there is more downside price action to come.
Here is a very chilling chart courtesy of ChartoftheDay.com. Many analysts have been talking about the current recession and comparing it to the economic troubles of the late 1970's and early 1980's (some refer to it as the Jimmy Carter troubles). I was an active professional trader during those times, and in my opinion, this economic downturn is much worse. I obviously was not around for the 1929-1936 depression era, but looking at the chart, you can see that the current economic environment is every bit as bad—if not worse than—The Great Depression.
I do not buy into the argument that the US government has more means to solve any economic crisis that arises. If they do, how did we get in such bad economic trouble? I also do not trust the people running the economic show; not from the past administrations and not from the current one. Many people have trumpeted our current Fed chairman as being the “best candidate” to get us out a steep recession because he studied The Great Depression. However, studying and putting cogent plans into action are two different things. So far, I see little to make me confident that anything but time will heal this economy, which was my opinion before our current Fed chairman was appointed. There is a season for all things, and I believe we will have to live through this season of severe economic downturn. And for the record, it is a depression, not a recession. I don't understand the media's reluctance to use the correct term for these tough times.
Tomorrow, we will look at two other charts that will show you why I am so worried that the already poor economic outlook may soon get decidedly worse.
| More tomorrow in Part 3. | Read Part 1 | Read Part 3 |
Timothy Morge
timmorge@gmail.com
www.medianline.com
www.marketgeometry.com
