Market Rally? Not Without This Sector
09/19/2011 11:14 am EST
One trader explains that the S&P 500 is unlikely to make a sustainable upside move beyond its recent range without a corresponding rally in the financial sector's biggest names.
The notion of the S&P 500 running higher without the participation of banks reminds me of Dana Carvey’s George Bush impression on Saturday Night Live…“Not gaah duht.”
The financials make up roughly 14% of the weighting of the S&P 500, but they carry possibly more from a psychological standpoint. Traders are conditioned to check the fin’s when the Spoos are on the go, and lately, the participation has been downright pathetic.
Considering that the S&P has rallied within its recent trading range, we’ve seen virtually no lift from key financial names (which I’ll review shortly). With that being the case, in my opinion, an upside exit from the range which actually sticks (no failure) is rather unlikely without the participation of at least most of the names below.
Let’s take a closer look at each with some notes on the individual charts, starting with a look at the S&P:
Now let’s look at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS):
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Now Morgan Stanley (MS):
Now JPMorgan Chase and Co. (JPM):
Now Wells Fargo & Company (WFC):
And finally, Bank of America (BAC):
The bottom line is that financials need to pull their weight if this range is going to see a lasting resolution to the upside. It might happen without them, but it’s highly unlikely.
Don’t take your eyes off the banks if you’re a bull.
By Jeff White of Stock Bandit University