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Get Ready for Dow 17,000
04/04/2013 9:45 am EST
From their mixed technical-fundamental point of view, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden of The Aden Forecast don't see any end in sight to this rising market.
The Fed is plowing ahead with its quantitative easing monetary stimulus program, and it's vowed to keep QE going indefinitely. Japan, Europe, and China are doing the same, to one extent or another, in order to keep their economies growing and on track.
All this liquidity is creating a flood of money that's driving stocks higher. As the old saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats, and it's happening worldwide. It's basically driving most of the global stock markets higher.
This has attracted a lot of attention, and many small investors are jumping into the market, which is also driving prices higher. Sentiment is bullish, and it's an important factor.
Investors, for example, poured $25 billion into stock mutual funds in January. That's the largest monthly amount in 13 years, and we believe this trend will continue to grow. Why?
Low interest rates are always very bullish for stocks. And rates are currently extremely low-the lowest, in fact, in more than 60 years. That leaves investors and savers with few options.
CDs pay nothing. The yields on bonds are very low. So rising stocks-especially those that pay a decent dividend-are looking all the more attractive.
Plus, stocks are not expensive. They have room to rise further before they become overpriced, based on the price-to-earnings ratio. This, too, is a big attraction.
Currently, the P/E ratio is at 17.9. And with interest rates as low as they are, the average P/E has been about 21.8, based on a study of the past 60 years. So again, stocks are a good value at today's levels.
The technicals are also very bullish. The S&P 500 is starting to break above its 2000 and 2007 resistance levels at 1,550. Following on the heels of the Dow Industrials and Transportations, if the S&P 500 can rise and stay above 1,565, it'll be extremely bullish for the US and global stock markets.
Note that both indicators could rise further before they're overbought or at a major high area. This means stocks will likely keep rising.
The volatility index (VIX) is also known as the fear index, and it too is reinforcing this. It tends to move opposite to stocks, and it remains at a six-year low, which means investors are calm. In other words, despite the huge debt load, the Fed's money policies, the debt ceiling, and all the rest, investors are OK with it.
Overall, investors are generally optimistic about the underlying fundamentals, and this optimism kicks up when the news is good. And when it's not, it's basically ignored.
With small investors moving into the market, it could embark on a speculative phase which could send stocks far higher. We're literally in uncharted territory. Based on a long-term point and figure chart, one estimated target is 17,000 on the Dow Industrials. It sure feels like 2006-2007, but we'll see what happens.
For now, we feel we're well positioned with a mixture of blue chips and good dividend-paying stocks. We also have some tech and global stocks in the mix. These should all do well as the bull market unfolds.
Most important, watch the major uptrend. It will stay intact with the Dow Industrials, Transportations, S&P 500, and Nasdaq above 13,100, 5,250, 1,395, and 2,975, respectively. As long as that's the case, stay with it.
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