Equities are faring well, while gold and silver are rallying, as a key deadline in Washington looms. Crude oil is pulling back along with the dollar, while Treasuries are rising a bit.
The clock is ticking down to a potential federal government shutdown. Current funding will run out Wednesday, Oct. 1 just after midnight. A Republican-led bill would extend funding through Nov. 21, but so far there haven’t been enough Democrats willing to vote for it.
President Trump is meeting with congressional leaders today in an effort to break the impasse. But prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi – where people put real money on the line betting on various events – were signaling a 70%-plus chance of a shutdown this morning. Gold hit a fresh record above $3,850 an ounce, too, as markets priced in more shutdown-related economic risk.
MAGS, PLTR, ORCL (YTD % Change)
Data by YCharts
Meanwhile, Wall Street is looking to replace the “Mag 7” with something that better reflects the dominance of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related stocks. “Fab Four,” “Big Six,” “Elite 8,” and other stock groupings and nicknames are getting thrown around. That’s because stocks like Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) aren’t included in the original Mag 7 – even as they're are surging on AI-related growth. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is up a respectable 18.4% year-to-date…but ORCL is up 71.5% and PLTR is up 134.8%.
Finally, can you have too much of a good thing? Some credit analysts are wondering if that’s the case today. The price of riskier bonds has been rising steadily, while the spread between yields on bonds issued by risky borrowers and government bond yields has been falling. That reflects extreme investor optimism about economic growth and future defaults – and it makes it cheaper for corporate borrowers to raise money.
Just like during the housing bubble of the early-to-mid-2000s, however, borrowers, lenders, and investors can go too far. Back then, garbage mortgages of all kinds were underwritten – and when defaults spiked, it took down the financial markets. Bears are warning that the same thing may be happening in credit markets now. Two companies – subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and auto-parts supplier First Brands – just went bankrupt, raising some eyebrows.
