Leibovit: Favorites from a Top Timer
10/03/2003 12:00 am EST
Through the 5 years ended on 12/31/01, Timer Digest ranked Mark Leibovit, editor of The VRTrader.com, as the the #1 intermediate-term market timer in the US. He is currently a long term bear on the stock market, and a long-term bull on gold.
"We're in a treacherous time frame for stocks. My view is that regardless of whether prices work higher in the next couple of weeks or not, the risk/reward is simply not there and you're playing with fire. Gold is telling us that there is something rotten in Denmark, especially if it is in the early stages of a multi-year advance. Gold shares are still acting well and gold is readying for another surge higher which should take it well over $400.00 (though I believe this is a very, very conservative number taking a bigger picture view).With blue chips gold stocks projecting significantly higher, it's only a matter of time!
"Though I look through the eyes of a technical analyst, as you know I'm quite influenced by not only the chicanery of our government and Wall Street, but also by the shear weight of economic evidence that points to the negative. The collapse in the dollar, the severity of the decline in European markets, the lack of manufacturing growth in the U.S., the loss of consumer confidence, the loss of confidence in our leaders, the continuing saga of lost jobs, the high level of debt (including margin debt in the equity markets), and the cockiness among investors all come together as a major warning of dire times ahead. As a result, gold is still the great play; it's my favorite sector."
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for VRtrader.com. And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT: Always glad to be here, Paul.
KANGAS: The one group of stocks that you liked back in March when you were last on the show, was the gold group. And you gave us about five recommendations. Newmont Mining (NEM NYSE) was $26, now it`s over $40. Kinross Gold (KGC NYSE) was up about 20 percent and then we had about three or four others. Glamis Gold (GLG NYSE) is nicely higher by about 30 percent. Agnico- Eagle (AEM NYSE) is up very comfortably. And then also I believe -- yes, RandGold & Exploration (GOLD NASDAQ) also up about, oh, 30 percent or so. Those were great calls and I compliment you on that. Do you still own these?
LEIBOVIT: We still like them. We love them, and hold them. We`re adding other names. This is the early stages of a much bigger bull market. Other names that you might want to add to the list include Anglo Gold (AU NYSE). In the silver group perhaps Hecla (HL NYSE), Harmony Gold (HMY NYSE), and ASA (ASA NYSE).
KANGAS: Why do you like the golds and the silvers so much here?
LEIBOVIT: Well, we`re coming out of a 20-year correction. Since 1997 we`ve created what we call a long-term reverse head and shoulders pattern. And we`re starting to take out the right side of that shoulder. The way we measure that, Paul, if you take the height from where the head is to where our break out point is, which is around 90 on the top of the shoulder, and that gives us about 50 points in the Philadelphia Gold Index ($XAU NYSE). So from around the 95 level, we could rally up to 140-150 in the XAU, and that tells me there`s still a lot of room coming on a multi-year chart.
LEIBOVIT: But I think we`re just beginning the move and maybe we`ll get measurements even higher than that. So it`s a very bullish pattern.
KANGAS: Well, you like a lot of the individual gold stocks. Do you own those that you`ve mentioned?
LEIBOVIT: I own some. I trade some for clients. We recommend some. So we`re all over the place. But we still basically are holding positions.
KANGAS: What about buying the bouillon itself? Will you favor that or do some of that?
LEIBOVIT: I would, absolutely. In fact, there`s a new ETF coming on the New York Stock Exchange.
KANGAS: Exchange traded fund, you mean?
LEIBOVIT: Exchange traded fund, ticker symbol GLD. And that`s the World Council`s Equity Gold Trust. And from what I read, they`re empowered to buy about six million ounces of gold commodity gold related products. So there`s a lot of demand coming. I think gold is going to move up in anticipation of GLD starting to trade.
KANGAS: Right. How high do you think gold can get on this move?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, I don`t have a specific target. I`m looking at the XAU. But I think by the end of the year you could see anywhere from 420 to 450.
LEIBOVIT: So we`ll take it as we go.
KANGAS: All right, very good. Just like last time. Buy gold and gold stocks.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for VRtrader.com.