With gold setting new highs, the precious metals sectors remains a favorite of leading advisors. Here, we offer commentary and several top stock picks from David Fuller, Carla Pasternak, Joe Sunderman, and Eric Naimer-Roseman.
(For more on the advisors cited below, please click on their photos.)
"My longstanding view is that gold is a buy on setbacks," says
David Fuller, a London-based economist and resource expert. In
his FullerMoney, he says, "Gold now appears to have
completed a lengthy consolidation, and I would not be surprised to see it move to
$450 before year-end. Among individual stocks, Newmont Mining (NEM NYSE) is a conservative choice. I'd also note
that I almost always use silver as my main gold proxy, because it usually trades
like a high-beta version of the yellow metal. Currently, my silver participation is
in the Silver Standard Resources (SSRI NASDAQ). Meanwhile, palladium is very much the
laggard among precious metals, largely due to a bubble peak in early 2001, which
encouraged overproduction and substitution. Today, the supply/demand equation is
slowly reversing as low prices attract increased demand, not least from the
automobile and jewelery industry. In terms of mining shares, North American
Palladium Ltd. (PAL ASE)
looks like a recovery candidate."
"While other metals and mining firms are rallying strongly in the
face of a falling US dollar, Anglo American (AAUK NASDAQ) remains below analysts' radar screens,"
notes Carla Pasternak in her High-Yield
Investing. Despite a $34 billion market
capitalization, the firm is under-followed. Only a handful of analysts track
the stock, and institutions own only 1% of the firm's outstanding shares. The
result is that the stock hasn't advanced with others in the metals and mining
industry and is enormously undervalued. With a P/E of less than 10 times 2005
earnings, the stock is trading at a steep discount to its peer group average of
about 35. It's also trading at a discount to the firm's own projected growth
rate of +15%. Add in the stock's generous 2.5% dividend yield, and AAUK's
valuation looks compelling. Anglo American is not a pure gold play. As a large,
diversified mining company, AAUK is less volatile than its peers. The UK-based
conglomerate controls mining interests all over the world. It has a 55% stake in
gold and silver producer AngloGold Ashanti, 74% of platinum producer Anglo
American Platinum, and 45% of diamond producer De Beers Consolidated. It is also
one of the world's largest independent coal miners, with interests in base
metals and industrial minerals, as well as paper and packaging products. Since
placing this gem on our Watch List last month, we have become increasingly
convinced that, over time, AAUK will deliver market-beating returns. In our
opinion, AAUK spells value."
"Gold futures have continued to move steadily
higher along their ten-day and 20-day moving averages. Helping to prop up gold
prices has been a weak US dollar, which is hitting levels not seen since
1995," notes Joe Sunderman, analyst with
Schaeffer Investment Research
. "Amid the gold sector,
one of the stock's we especially like is Meridian Gold (MDG NYSE). The security stands near its annual
highs, with the stock trending along its short-term moving averages. The sentiment front looks encouraging. Short interest grew 47% last month and now sits at four times the stock's average daily volume. Finally,
the number of 'holds' and 'sells' clearly
outweighs the number of 'buys' on the analyst front. Traders should target a move to 22.50 with a stop-loss on a trade
below 18.50."
"Goldcorp (GG NYSE) is a major Canadian producer, holding a major
stake in the Red Lake Mine (located near Placer Dome's lucrative Red Lake
Mine)," notes Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend
Alert. "Goldcorp, unlike Placer
Dome, is a much cheaper stock and without a doubt now ranks as one of the
lowest-cost producers in the world today. The stock trades 25% off its 52-week
high of $18.38 compared to near-highs for peers such as Placer and Newmont
Mining. There's a major discount on Goldcorp's stock, and it's not justified.
The company is probably one of the truly lowest-cost producers in the gold
mining business with an average cost of just $87 per ounce, no debt, and a
strong balance-sheet. Plus, most of Goldcorp's production is not hedged or
sold-forward. We think it's time to add to our gold positions, as the bull
market in metals takes hold. My target on gold is at $550 an ounce 12 months
from now, if not sooner. Buy Goldcorp at prices up to $16.75 a
share."