Should investors buy the recently launched gold bullion-based ETF? According to a variety of advisors— Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, Vivian Lewis, Jim Stack, Michael Norman, and J.D. Steinhilber—the answer to this question is yes, no, and maybe.
(For more on the advisors cited below, please click on their photos.)
"As time passes, we’re more inclined to believe this bull market
in gold is going to be a big one, which could surpass the old highs at $850,"
says Pamela and Mary Anne
Aden, editors of The Aden
Forecast
"Yes, there are obvious advantages to
the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust, as investors now have the chance to own gold-backed
shares without the worry of buying and selling, storing, and insuring the actual
bullion," notes Jim Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Analyst. "This alternative also eliminates the
company-specific risk associated with owning mining stocks. However, this ETF also has
some drawbacks. Here are a few points to consider:
The IRS will treat shareholders as if they own the
underlying gold. Since gold is considered a collectible, gains on shares held
more than one year are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, rather than the 15% rate
applied to most long-term investments. Expenses initially are not to exceed 0.4% annually (which is high
for an ETF). The fund will cover these expenses by selling gold, which means the
amount of gold backing each share will gradually be reduced over time. Thus,
while the new StreetTRACKS Gold Trust has attracted interest, we
continue to favor Newmont Mining (NEM NYSE), or for fund
investors, American Century Global Gold (BGEIX ). As
long as the environment is positive for gold, we feel these specific investments
should provide more gains than the ETF."
"I think investors should load up on StreetTRACKS Gold
Trust, which I view as an attractive play on continued US dollar weakness,"
says Vivian Lewis, editor of Global
Investing. "We bought the Trust
for $44 and change on its second trading day. This is the first pure commodity
investment ever listed on the Big Board. While almost any ETF invested abroad
will produce a gain during the coming decline of the dollar, remember that most
ETFs are aimed at efficiently tracking a foreign index. That means they are
invested in the largest foreign companies. These firms in most cases are
multinationals, which do a considerable amount of business in the US. Even if
they are not making gizmos using yen or euro inputs, the weak dollar will hurt
them. The performance of their shares (and the ETFs holding them) will fail to
match the full drop in the greenback. We therefore think that commodity-linked
ETFs—such as StreetTRACKS Gold Trust— are a better way to invest to benefit from a declining dollar than
any particular country or region ETF."
"StreetTRACKS Gold Trust finally made its long-awaited
debut in November," notes J.D. Steinhilber, editor of Agile Investing
. "Investors have traditionally gotten exposure
to precious metals through gold stock or mutual funds that own gold stocks,
because gold stocks typically outperform bullion when gold is rising and
because physical gold is taxed at a long-term capital gains rate. The counter
argument is that it is about a third as volatile as gold stocks and is less
correlated with the broader stock market. Of course, investors do not need to
choose one or the other; they can hold the gold ETF alongside their gold stock
investments. In our view, the gold ETF is a welcome addition to the investment
landscape. It represents a major innovation in facilitating the ownership of
bullion, and opens up a new asset class for investors building diversified
portfolios with low-cost ETFs. Given the formidable problems facing the US
dollar, gold could still be in the early stages of a multi-year bull market.
Moreover, given its lack of correlation to stocks and bonds, a modest allocation
to gold can be expected to improve the risk-adjusted returns of a diversified
investment portfolio in the years ahead."
Finally, Michael
Norman, editor of The Economic Contrarian, wonders, "Could gold’s shining debut as a ‘stock’ be a
contrarian sign? The launch of the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust is emblematic of the
big, two-year long run-up in gold prices. Exchange traded funds have taken off in
recent years and they cover everything from emerging markets to biotech to fixed
income. They are easy and effective ways to get participation in niche market
sectors or for that matter, entire countries. Gold ETFs have already been listed
in England, Australia, and South Africa, but not here in the United States. The
US is one of the largest consumers of gold bullion in the world, both for
industrial uses and for investment. The ETF comes about after a two-year period
that saw the gold price rise nearly $200 per ounce and amid an almost
unprecedented recent surge of attention and interest in gold as an investment. I
think it is one among a number of important psychological indicators that
suggests gold could be near a major top."