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Gold: Best Time to Buy an Asset When Everyone Loves or Hates It?
09/05/2018 6:00 am EST
We’ve heard many reasons why no one should buy gold. The people you speak with about gold either view it with disgust (those who own it) or complete indifference (those who do not), writes Avi Gilburt. Is this the time to buy? He's presenting at TradersExpo Las Vegas.
Gold is a relic of the past. There is no interest from the millennials for gold. The cryptocurrencies are taking demand away from gold. Central banks have been selling gold over the last few years. Interest rates do not support a rally in gold. Gold funds have been closing of late, which evidences the lack of demand for gold.
But, let me ask you a question: Is the best time to buy an asset when everyone loves it or hates it?
The bullish sentiment in the gold market is the lowest we have seen in years--if not rivaling the same levels as the lows we have seen over decades. And, as Baron Rothschild was quoted as saying: “Buy when there is blood in the street... even if it is yours.”
When SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) broke down below $117.40, I warned that this could cause blood to flow in the streets, as it opened the door to drop as deep as the $105 region.
While I am unsure whether we will see levels that deep on this last pullback before the bull market resumes, I can tell you that I do not think we will spend much time down there should we see those levels.
Rather, if we see the $105 region, it will likely be in an overreaction spike down which will likely provide us with one of those V bottoms. But, do take note that the overnight futures pricing has already struck the top to our bottoming target for the GLD.
While I don't always publicly provide the charts that I show to the members of my service, I think it would be helpful for you to see a visual of what I am seeing, and why I think we have a tremendous buying opportunity being presented to us.
As long as we remain below the $116 region and do not see an impulsive structure breaking out through that resistance, I am looking for a lower low to complete the larger degree wave II pullback.
Moreover, as I have noted, that low can even be as deep as the $105 region, wherein we have an a=c target for this larger degree 2nd wave we have been mired within for the last 2 years.
Yet, should we be able to see a strong break out in the coming weeks through the $116.50 level, then it opens the door to gold having bottomed. But, unfortunately, there are still a number of miners that will likely take a bit longer until they complete their pullback.
The fact that the market has dropped as deeply as it has can either be a point of frustration for you or a huge opportunity.
Much depends on how you control your emotions and view the market. In fact, if you review the common sentiments I listed at the start of the article, that is what you want to be reading to suggest gold is striking a long-term low.
So, I would strongly suggest you view this larger degree pullback as an opportunity to purchase assets in this complex at prices you may not again see in your lifetime.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
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