We include a longer-term outlook as well as our predicted ranges for next week, writes Trevor Smith.
Although it is not indicated in my weekly analysis, there is a longer-term breakout potential in crude oil and the Japanese yen. These wide-range price moves could start in terms of days but should last for weeks and months, with the yen making fewer directional turns.
The three-day and weekly chart is moderately bearish for the yen and gold for July. Crude oil and the euro have bearish-direction daily chart candle positioning with no clear trade signal in the context of bullish monthly candlesticks. Directionally, the S&P500 shows bullish market internals for early July in its signal-free breakout configuration that hints of the second move being down.
Last week, we offered directionally-successful trades in weekly options. However, prices touched only half of my projected ranges. Non-touched ranges, while disappointing, were still close enough to assist traders and for me to continue the hours-long hand calculations of this work!
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Trades)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2992-2968; Low Range 2904-2875
2960/55 Long put spread near early-week highs’ strikes
Japanese Yen
High Range 9393-9375; Low Range 9274-9200
Short call spreads 9325/9350 weekly, monthly expirations
Euro FX
High Range 1.150-1.147; Low Range: 1.139-1.135
Buy 1142/45put spread
Gold
High Range $1441-$1435; Low Range $1380-$1364
Sell 1405/20 call spread
Crude Oil
High Range $6196-$6094; Low Range $5761-$5688
Long 60/5950 put spread
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Friday, June 27); 5/10 touched ranges; 3/5 option trades’ underlying symbols surpassed chosen strikes in winning direction but do not reflect winning trades. Actual wins/losses vary due to option pricing complexities/nuances.
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2990-2976; Low Range 2930-2915
Actual: 2961-2914
Short call spread 2955/60 or Long put spread 2950/45
Japanese Yen
High Range 9435-9404; Low Range —9251-9245
Actual: 9422-9298
Short call spread 9325/9350
Euro FX
High Range 1.146-1.142; Low Range: 1.134-1.130
Actual: 1.148-1.142
Short call spread 1137/1140
Gold
High Range $1423-$1405; Low Range $1382-$1360
Actual: $1442-$1401
Short call spread $1390/95 or Long put spread $1385/90
Crude Oil
High Range $5923-$5760; Low Range $5420-$5320
Actual: $5993-$5675
Short call spread $5700/5750 or Long put spread $5650/5700
