Major Market Ranges for Week of Aug. 11: Tired, Stubborn Equity Bulls; Yen Pause & Crazy Crude Breakout

08/09/2019 3:08 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Here next week’s major market ranges as predicted by Trevor Smith’s proprietary models.

Stubborn bullish continuation signs remain in several U.S. equity indices, albeit weaker bullishness in a few symbols such as the Japanese yen, gold and the euro. The yen’s daily chart presents traders an inverted hammer candlestick that is volume-supported. Unfulfilled target prices remain under the daily bar, and Friday’s breakout may exhaust buyers. Due to bullish trending breakouts, make the yen sell a small trade.

With a weaker Chinese currency, the yen might weaken, too, then Chinese Indices would rally from attractive low-pricing. Weekly charts of the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) do show a low.

Crude oil is in a triple-time frame narrow-range breakout setup with overlapping pivots in numerous timeframes. While the breakout could occur in either direction, it is a bullish candle into Aug. 16.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Near-Target Trades Relative to Friday’s Midday-Close)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3015-2985; Low Range 2875-2855

Buy 2940/35 weekly call spread & 2905/2900 put spread (toward lower weekly pivot) because of sideways-chop weekly pivots can allow both directions to win

Japanese Yen

High Range 9590-9525; Low Range 9400-9330

Sell weekly call spread 9500/9550 when underlying is at 9525-9550

Euro FX

High Range 1.128-1.126; Low range 1.119-1.115

Buy 1127/1125 weekly put spread

Gold

High Range $1530-$1560; Low range $1480-$1455

Sell $1515/$1510 weekly call spread for weekly pivot, range midpoint touches by this method against range breakout or sell the put spread joining the breakout rally toward next week’s highs.   

Crude Oil

High Range $56.99-$5578; Low Range $5230-$5130

Buy long call spreads weekly near $55 strike toward weekly highs, monthly call spreads if believing larger breakout is near/up

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of midday Friday, Aug. 9); 5/10 touched ranges; 4/5 potential weekly option trades’ underlying symbols touched chosen strikes in winning direction but do not necessarily reflect winning trades. Actual wins/losses vary due to option pricing complexities/nuances.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3026-3008; Low Range 2940-2925

Actual: 2940-2775

Sell put spread 2945/2950 weekly, potentially laddering into additional spreads 2976, 2980, 3000, 3014 targets/strikes

Japanese Yen

High Range 9457-9420; Low Range 9325-9260

Actual: 9506-9365

Sell put spread 9375/9400 weekly, in a pullback from Fri. higher highs

Euro FX

High Range 1.124-1.117; Low Range 1.110-1.103

Actual: 1.128-1.114

Buy call spread 1115/11125weekly

Gold

High Range $1472-$1455; Low Range $1428-$1416

Actual: $1522-$1448

No trade due to complex weekly-chart range box. $1445/$1440 ($1440 weekly pivot) sell put spread or call spread weekly, if price near either strike set, expecting both sides to win.   

Crude Oil

High Range $5658-$5588; Low Range: $5430-$5285

Actual: $5561-$5062

No Trade. Sell $55.50/$55 put spread and prepare to sell call spread if it breaks early the other way expecting both sides to win and/or buy straight put or call at breakout of prior ranges after bullish weekly short put spread- may use monthly expiration issues on massive breakout trade. $5580 is weekly pivot target; $5480 is midpoint of my range projection as a price target.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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