Major Market Ranges for Week of Oct. 6: October Surprise?

10/04/2019 2:33 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Here are the predicted ranges in major markets for next week by Trevor Smith.

Bulls may invalidate October’s bearish reputation, starting next week. That said, the Japanese yen and S&P 500 are likely to experience a short-term pullback that should provide bulls a long entry opportunity. The timeline for these trades uses monthly options because the candlestick buy signals are on three-day and weekly charts (see below). October/November calendar spreads give trades extra time for upcoming rallies to roll.

ES three-day

Above Charts: (from left to right) ES three-day chart extreme valuation bull candle; Japanese yen weekly bull candle on support; euro futures weekly hammer candle lows; gold weekly hammer high on 20-week moving average support w/ target above but under bear candles; Crude Oil Daily chart early low reversal setting up under Bollinger Bands/fair valuation. Charts: Courtesy of ThinkorSwim.

Last week, the “outlier” low-price event of 2870 in the S&P 500 occurred and was exceeded further after a pause. Current bullishness is so strong that I can’t rule out the other extreme outlier event of 2955.

Eight of our 10 projected ranges were hit/exceeded.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3015-2978; Low Range 2895-2875 (outlier event= 3055 Sept. Monthly Camarilla resistance)

Buy weekly and monthly call spreads 2945/2950 strikes; Rationale: bull candlestick signals multiple time frames, range midpoint is 2945 fair value, unfulfilled 3012 retest overhead.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9468-9420; Low Range 9351-9330  

Sell 9375/9400 call spread, then buy 9350/9375 call spread if price is under 9350 and reversal rally signals present. Rationale; daily chart inverted hammer sell for the week at next week’s midrange, bullish Oct. candles.

Euro FX

High Range 1.110-1.106; Low Range 1.099-1.096

Buy 1.1/1.1105 call spreads weekly, monthly on pullbacks. Rationale: Bullish weekly, three-day candlesticks; weekly range midpoint 1.103 and already holding above it.

Gold

High Range $1539-$1529; Low Range $1494-$1484

Buy $1505/1510 weekly/monthly call spreads on pullbacks. Rationale: Bullish weekly chart candle, slightly overbought, daily chart consistent with prior weekly sell bars may throwback down the tail of weekly hammer.

Crude Oil

High Range $5491-$5398; Low Range $5175-$5075

Sell $5250/52 weekly put spread on down move into next week’s lows. Rationale: Price is out of Bollinger Band value, sideways pivots mean narrow range, moving average supports, volatility rank

Last Week’s Projected Ranges Versus Actuals as of noon Oct.4

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3018-3001; Low Range 2955-2940 (outlier events=2870. 3055 Monthly Camarilla resistance)

Actual: 2994-2955

Bearish technicals after 3001 tested above

Japanese Yen

High Range 9399-9373; Low Range 9311-9294

Actual: 9446-9264  

Bull, then bearish; Euro may lead it up

Euro FX

High Range 1.105-1.102; Low Range 1.097-1.094

Actual: 1105-1093

Consider bull-skew strikes Iron Condor, or simple short put spread near low of next week near here on Fri

Gold

High Range $1533-$1524; Low Range $1501-$1489

Actual: $1525-$1465

Bearish weekly chart inverted hammer, bull Daily chart toward highs

Crude Oil

High Range $6300-$6000; Low Range $5700-$5500

Actual: $5667-$5099

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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