Major Market Ranges for Week of Dec. 15: Bears Persist

Major market ranges for next week from Trevor Smith.

S&P 500 futures continue negative divergence, unsupportive of the new high prices. Currencies, gold, and crude oil also show bearish technical tendencies for the coming week.  

In this closing week, eight of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thursday night, and all option spreads had underlying symbols trade beyond chosen strikes in winning directions.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3220-3204; Low Range 3170-3156 (3060 outlier)
Buy weekly expiration 3195/3190 put spread to 3175 as weekly pivot levels target

Japanese Yen
High Range 9240-9214; Low Range 9142-9114 
Buy 9200/9150 weekly expiration put spread on 9140 low retest, scalping any available profit as the coming reversal toward 9220 is strong: trade small amidst Japan monetary policy/currency discussions.

Euro FX
High Range 1.128-1.125; Low Range: 1.121-1.118
Sell weekly expiration call spread 1122/25 toward 1120 weekly pivot, trading lightly in size due to weekly chart breakout >20-week & 50-week moving average supports. Consider bullish positioning into January-February options

Gold
High Range $1488-$1480; Low Range $1466-$1456
Sell weekly expiration call spread $1,475/80 strikes when price is between strikes and toward $1,376 weekly pivot; also, buy $1,379/75 call spread for high retest if price is between strikes and large drop has not occurred.

Crude Oil
High Range: $6153-$6037; Low Range $5834-$5771
Sell $59/5950 weekly expiration call spread, as range midpoint & weekly pivot  below Thu. price .

(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Friday a.m. publishing until the next Friday a.m. Average Daily Ranges are hand calculated, 24- hour data, except for the cash SPX.

Day Traders’ Statistics & Projections (new)

E-mini S&P 500
Average Daily Range (ADR) (for: SPX): $17.27; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range $1691
Gap Fill Probability:56%; Gap Down Reversal Probability: 63%; Thursday holds highest gains, least losses, most up days (Mon/Tue are the reverse) for the past six months’ data set.

Japanese Yen
Average Daily Range: 0.42%; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: 0.46%

Euro FX
Average Daily Range 0.39%; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: 0.36%
Gap Fill Probability (24-hour data): 87%; gap-up Reversals: 72%; Projected Gap Fill Probability: 84%

Gold
Average Daily Range 0.99%, $14.64; Projected $14.99; Mondays/Fridays hold most down days, highest losses; Tuesday holds highest maximum gains, most up days, and least losses.
Gap fill Probability (24-hour data): 83%

Crude Oil
Average Daily Range $1.60; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: $1.51
Gap Fill Probability (24-hour data): 93%; Gap down reversal probability: 60%; Monday holds highest total gains with the least total losses, although Monday shares equal up-down day ratios.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges:

E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3164.93-3143.50; Low Range: 3090-3075 (3060 outlier)
Actual: 3187-3117
Buy weekly expiration 3130/3135 & 3125/3130 put spreads as price climbs on basis that 3115 is next week’s projected range midpoint below with $ADD/$ADVN sell candle Daily chart and lower highs in divergence to index

Japanese Yen
High Range 9256-9221; Low Range 9175-9150 
Actual: 9225-9137
Buy 9200/9250 weekly expiration put spread on rallies toward 9230 if accepting next week’s pivot 9194 below is fair value; 9187 is my highest weekly low projection for next week still making put spread profitable.

Euro FX
High Range 1.114-1.111; Low Range 1.107-1.105
Actual: 1.126-1.105
Sell 1.111/1.115 weekly expiration call spread toward 1.109,08 below at weekly pivot/range midpoint zone; volume-spiked inverted hammer sell candle on Dec. 4 Daily chart.

Gold
High Range $1493-$1483; Low Range: $1472-$1466
Actual: $1491-$1463
Sell weekly expiration call spread $1480/85 strikes toward $1377 weekly pivot/range midpoint with 70 as target.

Crude Oil
High Range $6025-$5925; Low Range $5710-$5585
Actual: $5985-$5770
Sell $58/5850 weekly expiration call spread, as range midpoint/weekly pivot are $5812, 5770 below price; inverted hammer Daily chart with volume sell signal. Trade lightly in size due to coming massive breakout.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.