Next week’s major market range predictions from Trevor Smith.
The S&P 500 futures may continue to make higher highs next week, but the most compelling market moves will be in the Euro, rallying off today’s lows and gold, which should continue its bearish correction.
In this closing week, all 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday night, and most options spreads went past selected strike prices in winning directions.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3329-3318; Low Range 3241-3226
No official trade. Rationale: Bullish internals; understudies are bearish. Week’s Strategy: scalping, day trading, reversals.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9235-9211; Low Range 9120-9091
No official trade. Rationale: weekly chart bear engulf candle in neutral value and oversold understudies. Bounce and lower prices likely. Week’s Strategy: Scalp, reversal trades; monthly options for short trade continuation if inclined.
Euro FX
High Range 1.124-1.120; Low Range 1.112-1.108
Bullish long call spread and/or short put spread trade 1.116-1.114 strike price zones. 50-day moving average underneath support countertrend bounce that is out-of-Bollinger Bands on lows with momentum. Weekly strategy: join trending rally
Gold
High Range $1588-$1575; Low Range $1529-$1519
Sell call spreads weekly $1575/80 strike prices as price enters projected highs made early in week. Three-day, weekly and monthly charts are reason for my bearish bias. Week’s Strategy: join moderate trending up move.
Crude Oil
High Range $62.28-$61.28; Low Range $57.26-$55.25
No official trade. Sell call spreads $59/5950 strikes if price bounces, if believing three-day chart’s bear candle can produce a deep down move against sideways pivot math for next week. Week’s Strategy: Trade reversals, weekly low zone.
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3288-3265; Low Range 3225-3205 (3060 outlier)
Actual: 3287-3181
Buy weekly 3245/40 put spread due to bearish market internals, Implied Volatility%, 3215 is 1-standard deviation move target again this week, too.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9311-9299; Low Range 9249-9229
Actual: 9323-9147
No official trade. Rationale: range math bearish but weekly chart breakout over 20-week & 50-week moving average simultaneously an >80% win rate bullish next 4 weeks Feb options. Bullish-skewed Option Chain Delta values favor rally
Euro FX
High Range 1.128-1.124; Low Range 1.119-1.115
Actual: 1.125-1.112
No official weekly trade, but breakout closure >50-week moving average was bullish toward next higher moving average cluster (1.135); 1.129 higher printed. Inverted hammer weekly chart is a no-momentum, so-so sell signal.
Gold
High Range $1567-$1550; Low Range $1530-$1515
Actual: $1613-$1530
No official trade. $1540/35 are the weekly pivot and projected range midpoint below for next week, but I find no reasons other than overbought Fisher oscillator to short sell/trade down to the 40s- in a market making/retesting higher highs.
Crude Oil
High Range $65.13-$62.73; Low Range $62.66-$61.02
Actual: $65.65-$58.66
No official trade. Some resistance exists at $63/barrel, but my longstanding opinion has been the narrow range is too strong for too long to do anything but wait to join the massive breakout, if not too fast/wide (join >$7690;<$4015).
See More analysis from Trevor here
Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
