April may offer green shoots for markets that were battered in March, reports Trevor Smith.

Technically, April is guardedly bullish for stock indices and crude oil.

Trade ideas: Sell monthly-expiration crude put spreads near $23.50/$24. Short monthly S&P futures put spreads near 2495/2500 and 2470/2475 strikes if the market gets down there before Tuesday. which allow time (theta) decay/volatility collapse.

The euro silently sets up an inconceivable pivots-based breakout for traders on tightly-aligned higher time frames, including the yearly chart. Bulls will likely buy this Wave 2 pullback on the daily chart (to: 1.137, 1.166, 1.192), while the countertrade eyes many neutral-bearish candlesticks. 

Last week’s tagline, “Breakouts” accurately predicted prices escaping their prior week’s ranges in S&P 500 futures, the Japanese yen, gold and crude oil. The euro is this week’s exception to actual “breakout” outcomes, although its delayed, coming breakout is likely sizeable; seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2775-2651; Low Range 2412-2367
Bullish adjusted range from market internals strong since Feb. 28; Weekly chart buy signal has sell tail/shadow on top softening my high range off the 2800

Japanese Yen
High Range 9484-9379; Low Range 9235-9152 
Range is neutral with one standard deviation embedded but also wide on both sides due to trending, wide-range expected move that may be similar to the euro.

Euro FX
High Range 1.129-1.118; Low Range 1.082-1.076
(1.137,1.166 outliers)
Bullish range towards higher 1.192 pivot targets. Aggressive traders can buy small monthly, slightly out-of-the-money (>1,10 strikes) call spreads overhead with unneeded money.

Gold
High Range $1678-$1658; Low Range $1612-$1574
Neutral ranges;

Crude Oil
High Range $3199-$2925; Low Range $2339-$2105
Bullish range/trade idea

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of Thursday afternoon):

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2900-2800; Low Range 2495-2400
Actual: 2635-2424
Bullish adjusted range from market internals strong since Feb. 28 at 3000 level.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9412-9300; Low Range 9100-9019
Actual: 9378-9266
Range is bullish in bearish Monthly chart context.

Euro FX
High Range 1.137-1.121; Low Range 1.0698-1.087
Actual: 1.18-1.084
Range has slight bullish skew.

Gold
High Range $1707-$1671; Low Range $1610-$1585
Actual: $1673-$1576
Neutral range; bearish volume spread analysis indications in narrow pricing

Crude Oil
High Range $2978-$2650; Low Range $2203-$1805
Actual: $2739-$1927
Range has bullish high extension based on options volume. Friday bullishness can create a short put spread trade.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.