Major Market Ranges for Week of Apr 26: More Breakouts & Reversals

04/24/2020 11:22 am EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Next week range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Starting Friday, range math favors three-day breakouts in the Japanese yen, S&P500, and crude oil.

Directionally, positive divergences may cause reversal upside trades in the euro and crude, while the S&P 500 may plan downside moves.

Last week’s Crude Oil statement was: “Crude oil’s pivots into the weekend suggest a narrow-range break signal candle may emerge Friday.” While I expected a bullish breakout, I had mentioned that a monthly floor pivot for crude was a negative number. The breakout’s strength caused contango, negative front-month contract pricing, ETF trading halts, and multiple repricing events. Oil prices widened between WTI (land-based crude) and Brent (water-based crude) in a type of market spread related to storage issues.

Six of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2892-2870; Low Range 2722-2692
Bear-adjusted range.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9385-9345; Low Range 9225-9205
Range is neutral. Possible early-week highs before lows.

Euro FX
High Range 1.090-1.086; Low Range 1.075-1.072
Bullish-adjusted ranges towards 1.137 target. Positive divergence.

High Range $1790-$1774; Low Range $1705-$1685
Bearish ranges: daily chart has negative divergence.

Crude Oil
High Range $2200-$2039($2428 outlier); Low Range $1314-$1055
Bullish range due to positively-divergent understudies; Call Options volume on $20, $30/barrel

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Thursday afternoon):

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2901-2865; Low Range 2687-2642
Actual: 2875-2717
Bear-adjusted high range; pivot studies suggest wide-range week. Strategy: Join breakout(s).

Japanese Yen
High Range 9372-9337; Low Range 9230-9195 
Actual: 9332-9262
Range is bearish. Strategy: Join trending breakout(s).

Euro FX
High Range 1.103-1.097; Low Range 1.080-1.074
Actual: 1.0912-1.076
Bullish ranges towards 1.137 target. Strategy: Join breakouts.

High Range $1770-$1751; Low Range $1688-$1675
Actual: $1764-$1666
Bearish ranges; Weekly chart has negative divergence.

Crude Oil
High Range $2527-$2318; Low Range $1850-$1170
Actual: Indeterminable; $2678-$650 back-month futures contract
Bullish range due to positively-divergent understudies; large options trades continue on both directions $14-$17 and $26-$33/barrel.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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