Major Market Ranges for Week of June 28: Bears Present

Major Market Ranges for Week of June 28: Bears Present

Bearish candlestick patterns persist in world markets amidst higher-high prints, reports Trevor Smith who predicts next week’s major market ranges  

Candlestick patterns, as charts currently illustrate are less important during trends and breakouts. Vanguard’s Total World Stock Market ETF (VT) weekly chart inverted hammer candle is bearish. Dow Jones Transport Index (DJT) show a similar monthly-chart bear candle encompassing the 20-, 50- and 80-month averages.

Sadly, my prior predictions of an earthquake and sudden sea-level rise occurred in Mexico and impacting contiguous countries with a two-foot increase in sea level, thus causing regional Tsunami warnings.  Weather experts also warn that the current tropical storm-weakening Sahara dust effects are temporary.

An environmental Summer or Fall weather-related event could also move crude oil into wider two-sided trades. Watch for news in places like Kazakhstan and Texas whose economies are both responsive and tied to oil prices. Crude oil is bullish, undervalued on the longer-term quarterly chart up to $51 per barrel, although there is technical weakness on short timeframes.

While markets still react strongly to Coronavirus news, I am monitoring geopolitical tensions by the “Global Conflict Tracker” on the Council on Foreign Relations’ website for news that could affect markets. 

Last week’s “Summer Solstice Breakouts Bash” headline described this week’s market pricing in several markets; gold even made higher monthly breakout highs. Finally, six of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday. 

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night) 

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3163-3128; Low Range 3017-2990 (outlier 2915)

Bull skewed range for Fri-Mon; reason: /VX futures two-day chart; VT weekly chart bearish.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9419-9376; Low Range 9297-9281

Low range extension due to two-day chart inverted hammer’s 9290 target. monthly chart is bullish like the Euro below.

Euro FX

High Range 1.133-1.129; Low Range 1.119-1.117

Neutral-bearish weekly range; Weekly-chart inverted hammer candlestick sell triplets & three-day chart’s out-of-value, modified doji break toward 1.113-09 targets below. 

Gold

High Range $1799-$1781; Low Range $1757-$1643

Neutral-bearish range based on Daily chart. Short a call spread in the weeklies toward $1,745 on narrow range, trending pivots, candle signal in extreme valuation.

Crude Oil 

High Range $41.12-$39.92; Low Range $36.68-$35.83

Bearish range from weekly chart sell signals to $35 for next 2-4 weeks after immediate bounce. Quarterly chart targets remain at $43 or $51 for late summer. Fibonacci support at $26. Weather/ environmental event could reduce supply and raise land or at-sea oil prices.

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3226-3172; Low Range 3038-3009

Actual: 3145-3005

Bull skewed range; reason: VIX weekly chart/internals. Slight bull skew in Thursday option chain.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9450-9397; Low Range 9320-9280

Actual: 9439-9316

Low range extension due to 2-Day chart inverted hammer’s 9290 target. 3-day, weekly, monthly chart are bullish like the Euro below

Euro FX

High Range 1.134-1.130; Low Range 1.116-1.108

Actual: 1.137-1.118

Neutral-bearish weekly range; 20-day,20-week support before Weekly-chart inverted hammer candlestick sell doublets & 3-Day chart’s out-of-value, modified doji break toward 1.113 targets below. Trade short call spreads lightly in monthly/weekly expiration if still in/trading around core long position in monthly charts & plan exit.

Gold

High Range $1779-$1755; Low Range $1711-$1694

Actual: $1796-$1728

Neutral-bearish range.

Crude Oil 

High Range $42.50-$41.12; Low Range $36.48-$35.21

Actual: $41.63-$37.08

Quarterly chart targets can be $43 or $51 by late summer or fall with $26 support as a Fibonacci halfway point between prior $6 and $40. An unknown natural environmental or weather event could reduce supply & raise land or at-sea oil prices.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.