Major Market Ranges for Week of Aug. 2: Trends, Reversals, Rare Earth Bulls Pullback

07/31/2020 9:39 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Gold, S&P 500, and Japanese yen may reverse intraweek, reports Trevor Smith.

Gold and the Japanese yen are on high prints above their Bollinger Bands/value, which is bearish. The S&P 500 futures is in trending mode and appears bullish.

Last Week Recap

The S&P 500 put spread bear trade idea succeeded twice; the “big pivot/range breakout either direction in the Japanese yen occurred with my “neutral-bullish range due to candlesticks” predicting breakout direction, but my hand calculations and range math are not always predictive. Finally, five of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3287-3257; Low Range 3206-3186 (outlier 3122)
Neutral-bearish range due to weekly chart inverted hammer & internals. Daily chart bullish into early next week. Short monthly call spread lightly; bullish.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9578-9530; Low Range 9491-9444
Neutral-bearish range due to two-day chart sell signal that’s missing momentum support for the bear trade.

Euro FX
High Range 1.194-1.188; Low Range 1.175-1.168
Bullish weekly range: monthly chart bull candle encompasses 20-,50-, & 80-month averages.

Gold
High Range $1,999-$1,984; Low Range $1,931-$1,914
Bearish range based on two-day chart candlestick signals. Expecting stops run into highs as next move.  Sell call spreads due to sideways pivots despite low volatility to add time decay profit angle. Bearish range based on two-day chart candlestick signals. Expecting stops run into highs as next move. 

Crude Oil
High Range $41.14-40.33; Low Range $39.33-38.46
Neutral-bearish extension range based on option chain. Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for Fall.

REMX (Van Eck Rare Earth Elements ETF)
High Range $41.04-40.80; Low Range $39.94-39.47
Bearish-range due to daily chart candlestick. Multi-week/month/year pivot-based bullish major reversal breakout setup; demand from many uses (LED lights, sensors, medical & nanotechnology, nuclear energy); unusual Feb 2021 options activity at seemingly-ridiculous $49 overhead strike price for Feb. 2021

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3291-3267; Low Range 3220-3190 (outlier 3101)
Neutral-bearish range. VIX futures on 50-week moving average support. Buy 3250s current price strike in weeklies as put spread on Implied Volatility.
Actual: 3257-3191

Japanese Yen
High Range 9394-9378; Low Range 9335-9301
Neutral-bullish range due to candlesticks. Join next week’s big pivot/range breakout in either direction. 
Actual: 9549-9362

Euro FX
High Range 1.169-1.165; Low Range 1.154-1.150
Neutral weekly range: Monthly chart bull candle encompasses 20-,50- and 80-month averages.
Actual: 1.184-1.159

Gold
High Range $1,926-$1,908; Low Range $1,857-$1,836
Neutral range based on overbought oscillators.
Actual: $1998-1880

Crude Oil
High Range $43.29-$42.40; Low Range $40.81-40.01
Neutral-bearish extension range. Low Implied Volatility. Sell call spread if bearish on next week.
Actual: $4193-3872

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Related Articles on MARKETS

Keyword Image
Fear a Bear Market
4 hours ago

Headline risks are everywhere, much like bloated credit card statements in January after a holiday s...