Trevor Smith reports mixed signals in global stock indices going into the week.
Last week’s article stated, before the Nasdaq 100 lifted the other indices that “multiweek downslides may emerge, after Nasdaq lifts other indices,” This third week of divergences continues with the Russel 2000 Index not making new highs, against financial sector strength on daily time frames; CBOE VIX futures still look strong- even on monthly charts.
Bulls see consumer spending/financial strength and could buy small-lot weekly call spreads, while broad-market bears see candlestick sell signals across world indices and might buy monthly put spreads.
Crude oil, similar to global stock indices, is a mixed-up mess with some gas prices jumping, demand flattening and most Gulf Coast facilities temporarily offline due to weather events. Bulls see new highs, while bear-engulfing candlesticks/fresh doji-breaks toward the 200-day moving average ($42/barrel) beckon.
Eleven of 12 ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3536-3515; High Range 3448-3428
Bearish high range; Buy monthly put spread at strike prices underneath current levels, if bearish
Japanese Yen
High Range 9439-9384; Low Range 9360-9342
Bearish ranges due daily chart candlestick & volume. Prior-week .9315 3-Day chart tgt also possible
Euro FX
High Range 1.189-1.184; Low Range 1.178-1.176
Bearish weekly ranges; Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into Oct.
Gold
High Range $1987-$1963; Low Range $1916-1898
Bullish Daily chart bearish Monthly chart
Crude Oil
High Range $43.79-43.19; Low Range $42.30-41.60
Bearish range based on unfulfilled candlesticks, resistances. Consider buying put spread due to low volatility Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for fall.
BONUS PLAY:
REMX (Van Eck Rare Earth Elements ETF)
Due to being a longer-term trade than my weekly article time frame, this symbol will not be tracked weekly herein; instead, a brief feature-article update between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Eve will track whether a pullback to the $40-36/share price occurred for bulls’ entries on Feb. 2021 call options in the $44-$60/share strike prices. The concluding article in February 2021 will also briefly cover the trade/sector.
Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3429-3404; Low Range 3340-3318
Expanded range; mid-month buyers and turn-of-the-month buyers may make sharp pops on down moves.
Actual: 3498-3356
Japanese Yen
High Range 9495-9465; Low Range 9402-9374
Expanded bearish range due daily chart engulfing candlestick, trending pivots; light bear trade idea: short call spread Friday into next week.
Actual: 9471-9372
Euro FX
High Range 1.192-1.189; Low Range 1.178-1.174
Neutral ranges: monthly chart bull candle breakout in progress- consider profitable scale-outs
Actual: 1.190-1.176
Gold
High Range $1991-$1976; Low Range $1914-$1898
Neutral-bearish range based on Thursday volume-spiked sell candle.
Actual: $1987-1908
Crude Oil
High Range $43.71 to 43.09; Low range $42.09 to 41.51 Bearish range based on unfulfilled candlesticks. No trade- Middle East news is bullish; low demand is bearish; narrow-range break forming monthly chart
Actual: $4378-$4146
BONUS PLAY
Van Eck Rare Elements ETF
High Range $42.71 to 42.15; Low range $41.33 to $40.88
Neutral-range; Bullish into 2021; Bearish-trades in Fall options chains/chart. Finite earth resource rapidly depleted. Call options volume in out-of-the-money $60 strikes in Nov.- Feb.
Actual: $4220-4057
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
