Dow dogs and transports bounce stronger off lows than financials, reports Trevor Smith
Current mixed-sector bounces reflect traders’ caution and/or rotation into dividend holdings. World markets show negative understudy divergences (lower highs) against recent highs. Monthly charts of the Dow Jones futures are underperforming peers.
Last week’s “Divergences Normalize” headline preceded world indices entering a pullback in unison. Nine of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3458-3428; Low Range 3320-3290
Bearish weekly highs due to internals, monthly chart; VIX futures support a sudden intraweek bear move between Fridays for S&P 500 low reversal rally reset; 3400 to print before weekly lows.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9471-9441; Low range 9397-9371
Neutral-bullish ranges (moving average support); strong & weeklong breakout-style trade expectation from pivots, compressed ranges
Euro FX
High Range 1.192-1.187; Low Range 1.179-1.174
Neutral ranges; bullish daily-chart. Trending breakout style trading based on pivots. Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into Oct.
Gold
High Range $1994-$1981; Low Range $1940-$1920
Neutral-bearish ranges (opinion from gap-up on daily chart set to regular trading hours), bullish Weekly & bearish Monthly charts
Crude Oil
High Range $39.69-38.75; Low Range $36.45-35.07
Neutral-bearish ranges; midweek sideways trades like Iron Condors based on today’s pivot math; Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for Fall.
Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3504-3482; Low Range 3422-3402
Bearish ranges: Bear engulf candlestick pattern on daily and weekly chart. Buy monthly put spread at strike prices below current levels if bearish.
Actual: 3484-3295
Japanese Yen
High Range 9475-9455; Low Range 9394-9371
Bullish ranges due daily chart hammer low candlestick on moving average. Buy call spreads as a trade idea.
Actual: 9454-9389
Euro FX
High Range 1.193-1.190; Low Range 1.183-1.178
Neutral ranges; bullish daily-chart candlestick on moving average. Idea: sell put spread. Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into October.
Actual: 1.191-1.175
Gold
High Range $1,981-$1,960; Low Range $1,919-1,902
Neutral ranges; bearish Monthly chart
Actual: $1975-1911
Crude Oil
High Range $42.25-$41.80; Low Range $40.67-$37.88
Neutral-bullish range due to red hammer candlestick low on daily chart moving averages. Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for Fall
Actual: $41.87-36.13
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
